When the world rushed to build more factories stamping out 155mm artillery shells, most people thought the problem was steel and lathes. But the real bottleneck the Ukraine war exposed isn't the empty "shell" — it's the propellant and explosives (energetics) packed inside, made in chemical plants the West has let dwindle to a shockingly small number. This is the story of the "dumb" shell that became the most fragile point in global security.
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Theme index· base 100 · USD total return
Why is Ammunition & Energetics moving?
Latest
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War demand stays hot; new rocket-motor capacity builds; fuel costs still bite
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Iran war keeps ammo demand locked in Iran says it is ready for a 'doomsday war' and Trump expects to bomb Tehran again after November midterms. Brent crude above $100 shows the conflict is still disrupting energy. A war with no end in sight means militaries keep firing and restocking missiles, bombs and artillery, so ammunition and energetics demand stays strong for years.
This is the core force keeping the theme's demand elevated and shows the war is not winding down.
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New solid rocket motor plant adds supply Kratos and RAFAEL committed up to $175 million to build a 500-acre energetics campus in Indiana, with production starting in 2027. Solid rocket motors are a key bottleneck for missiles. This new capacity, alongside expansions by Northrop and Lockheed, helps ease the shortage and supports the whole ammunition supply chain.
It is a concrete new investment that expands the supply base for a critical energetics component.
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Teledyne wins drone energetics contract Teledyne Energetics UK won a $15.4 million contract to supply initiation and energetic solutions for European drones, with potential to exceed $50 million. This is fresh, funded demand for energetics in unmanned systems and shows Europe is building its own defense supply chain, adding a new customer base for the theme.
It shows new demand coming from drones and European sovereign defense, a fresh sub-area for energetics.
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High fuel costs still squeeze energetics margins Brent crude broke above $100 for the first time since July as the Iran war threatens shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Making propellant and explosives uses lots of energy, so expensive oil and diesel keep eating into ammunition makers' profit margins. This is a real counterweight to the strong demand story.
It is the main negative force on the theme, showing that even with strong demand, profits are pressured by energy costs.
Q3 2026
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Ammunition demand surges on US-Iran conflict and NATO orders
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US-Iran conflict and NATO orders drive demand The US-Iran conflict and NATO's $50 billion in orders caused a surge in ammunition demand. Near-empty US missile stockpiles require multi-year restocking, and the war outlook now extends past 2029, locking in durable demand.
This explains the main demand shock that drove the sector in Q3.
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Record backlogs and major contract awards Lockheed's backlog hit a record $230.4B, and Raytheon won a $22.9B Tomahawk contract. New entrants like General Motors and Rheinmetall expanded capacity, while Asian producers posted strong growth.
This shows how companies are capturing the demand surge through record backlogs and new capacity.
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High energy and raw material costs squeeze margins Record US diesel at $5.85 per gallon, Brent crude above $100, and tungsten shortages constrained output and squeezed profit margins across the sector.
This highlights the cost pressures that acted as a counterweight to the demand boom.
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Shipping disruptions and approval uncertainty Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea delayed materials, while congressional and parliamentary approvals added uncertainty to the restocking boom.
This points to logistical and regulatory hurdles that could slow the sector's momentum.
News & notes movingAmmunition & Energetics
United StatesIsrael
Ammunition & Energetics▲
Kratos and RAFAEL Commit Up to $175 Million to Solid Rocket Motor Venture
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions is expanding its solid rocket motor capabilities through Prometheus Energetics, a joint venture with RAFAEL that will build a state-of-the-art energetics manufacturing campus on an approximately 500-acre site near the U.S. Navy and Army facility in Crane, Indiana. Kratos Defense and RAFAEL have committed up to $175 million in capital for the venture, covering the manufacturing facilities, property, equipment and personnel needed for the planned operations. Following construction and completion of RAFAEL's technology transfer and certification, Prometheus is expected to begin solid rocket motor production in 2027, with Kratos' investment in the venture ramping up during 2026 to support development of the planned manufacturing infrastructure. The new capacity could strengthen Kratos' position in propulsion and rocket systems, adding another manufacturing base alongside its existing Zeus solid rocket motors. Rivals Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin are also expanding solid rocket motor manufacturing capacity across their U.S. facilities to support defense and space propulsion programs and strengthen the domestic propulsion supply chain.
KTOS · Capital · Positive Kratos commits up to $175M to the Prometheus Energetics JV to build a solid rocket motor manufacturing campus, expanding its propulsion capacity.
Prometheus Energetics · Capital · Positive Prometheus Energetics, the Kratos-RAFAEL JV, receives up to $175M to build its energetics manufacturing campus and begin production in 2027.
Rafael Advanced Defense Systems Ltd. · Capital · Positive RAFAEL is the JV partner committing up to $175M and transferring technology for the Prometheus Energetics solid rocket motor venture.
Iran ready for doomsday war but keeps door open for talks with US
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday that Iran is ready for a doomsday war with the United States but is still keeping diplomatic channels open so as not to miss a chance to build peace. Speaking in an interview on NBC News' Meet the Press after last week's United Nations General Assembly, Araghchi said there is no reason for Iran to return to diplomacy, but he is still trying to negotiate because the opportunity to build peace should not be missed, and he affirmed that Iran is as ready to negotiate as it is to face any challenge, even one leading to a doomsday war. On Friday, Araghchi proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz and resuming nuclear talks with the United States within seven days if the government of President Donald Trump accepts Iran's conditions, but Trump rejected the proposal, and according to The Wall Street Journal, Trump also said he expects to go back to bombing Tehran again after the US midterm elections in November. Meanwhile, US Ambassador to the United Nations Michael Waltz said in another NBC News interview that Iran's proposal was a self-serving attempt to put something on the table that it knows is unacceptable. On Sunday, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed it had seized a US Remus 600 unmanned underwater vehicle in the Strait of Hormuz and declared the strait closed to unauthorized traffic, while Major General Amir Hatami, Iran's top military commander, stressed that the war is not over. The war, which began on February 28, has severely restricted energy shipments from the Middle East, sending oil prices sharply higher and adding to global inflation concerns. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.3% to close at 92.41 dollars a barrel, and Brent crude dropped 2.1% to close at 104.32 dollars. For the week, US crude fell 7.9%, while Brent was roughly flat. Year to date, WTI is up nearly 61% and Brent is up more than 71%.
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Autonomous Systems & Counter-Drone Geopolitics
BRENT · Geopolitics · Positive Iran's threats to close the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing war severely restrict Middle East energy shipments, supporting Brent crude prices.
WTI · Geopolitics · Positive Iran's threats to close the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing war severely restrict Middle East energy shipments, supporting WTI crude prices.
US officials have revealed that President Donald Trump rejected Iran's proposal for a 7-day ceasefire and told his team he expects to resume strikes on Iran after the midterm elections in November. Iran's proposal was to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping and revive negotiations on its nuclear program with the United States, on the condition that the US end its blockade of Iranian ports, which is inflicting severe damage on the country's economy. However, officials said Trump is personally skeptical about whether Iran will comply with his demands, and sees a possibility that the US will resume strikes on Iran. It remains unclear what scale of attack Trump is considering, with officials saying he does not want to return to a major combat operation, partly because the US wants to reserve its dwindling stock of munitions for other emergencies. Earlier, Trump said publicly that Iran is asking for a deal after the midterm elections, and that any such deal must lead to an end to Iran's nuclear program. The war has now lasted 7 months, and Trump's views could change in the coming weeks, including as a result of the midterm election results.
Metallus wins up to $995M U.S. defense contract for High Fragmentation 1 Steel
Metallus has been awarded a U.S. defense contract worth up to a maximum of $995M for High Fragmentation 1 Steel. The five-year contract runs through Sept. 24, 2031, and carries no option periods. Funding comes from fiscal 2025–2029 transaction funds under the contract, with the DLA Contracting Services Office serving as the contracting activity.
US and Iran Seek Phased Deal on Strait of Hormuz Reopening and Lifting of Naval Blockade
It has emerged that negotiators for the United States and Iran are exploring a phased agreement aimed at Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and the United States lifting its naval blockade of Iranian ports. According to people familiar with the talks, the two countries are pursuing discussions aimed at breaking the deadlock on the 24th, on the sidelines of related meetings of the United Nations General Assembly being held in New York, with Qatari officials mediating the negotiations. The phased agreement is expected to take a form similar to a memorandum of understanding signed by the United States and Iran in mid-June, but the ceasefire that was established, albeit precariously, on the back of that memorandum collapsed just a few weeks later. Reuters was first to report on the talks over a phased agreement. A White House official said President Trump remains open to dialogue with Iran, while stressing that the United States has no need to negotiate, as intensified sanctions and the naval blockade are pressuring the Iranian economy and the United States holds the upper hand. Meanwhile, a spokesman for Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi armed group said in a statement on Telegram that it had attacked Saudi Arabia twice using ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones. The first attack targeted a key site in the Saudi capital Riyadh, and the second targeted a Saudi Aramco facility in Yanbu on the Red Sea coast, according to the spokesman.
Saudi Aramco · Geopolitics · Negative Houthi spokesman said the group attacked a Saudi Aramco facility in Yanbu with ballistic and cruise missiles and drones.
US Said to Face Critical Shortage of Interceptors and Standoff Missiles
The United States is critically short on air defense interceptors and long-range standoff missiles, the two weapons it would need most in a hypothetical conflict with China, according to a defense analyst speaking on Bloomberg Businessweek. The analyst said President Trump's reference to U.S. missiles and stockpiles in his UN General Assembly address broke with convention, and warned that Beijing would be watching gleefully because the shortfall means the U.S. would be less able to bring its potential military power to bear. The Pentagon's FY 2027 Program Acquisition Costs by Weapon System, dated April 21, 2026, funds a surge in interceptor and precision-munitions buys, and the primes named on those lines stand to gain most. RTX booked over $5 billion in GEM-T Patriot effectors, including its first domestic GEM-T production order in over 30 years, plus $1.8 billion in AMRAAM in the second quarter, and carries a $289 billion backlog. L3Harris controls the sole large-scale solid rocket motor supply for both THAAD and PAC-3, backed by a $12 billion seven-year framework agreement, while Lockheed Martin is the THAAD prime named in the budget document and won a seven-year, $35 billion Missile Defense Agency contract to quadruple THAAD interceptor production. Two catalysts could turn the thesis into results: a promised PAC-3 multi-year contract in the second half of 2026 and congressional action on the administration's $67 billion supplemental weapons-replenishment request and the $1.1 trillion Department of Defense base budget for fiscal 2027.
LHX · Supply · Positive Controls sole large-scale solid rocket motor supply for THAAD and PAC-3, backed by a $12 billion seven-year framework agreement.
LMT · Demand · Positive THAAD prime named in the budget document and won a seven-year, $35 billion MDA contract to quadruple THAAD interceptor production.
RTX · Demand · Positive Booked over $5 billion in GEM-T Patriot effectors and $1.8 billion in AMRAAM, with a $289 billion backlog.
Trump Confirms US Still Has Ample Weapons Ahead of UNGA Speech
US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social in response to media reports that the US weapons stockpile is running low after the war with Iran, insisting that the United States still has a large supply of weapons and that production is increasing at an unprecedented rate. Trump posted the message ahead of his speech to the United Nations General Assembly, or UNGA, tonight, saying, "The cowards and traitors like to say that the US weapons stockpile is running low, which is not true," and "We have more military equipment than we could ever imagine using, and we are now increasing weapons production at a level we have never seen before." Trump is scheduled to speak today at about 9:45 a.m. US time, or 8:45 p.m. Thailand time, following Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. US Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the United Nations Mike Waltz said the speech will focus on how Trump and his administration directly confront complex global problems, and will address ensuring Iran does not obtain nuclear weapons, as well as report progress on the peace plan in the Gaza Strip. It is also expected that he will support the development of artificial intelligence, or AI, so that the United States remains the world leader in this area, as well as discuss the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, efforts to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, and reform of the United Nations.
Teledyne Wins European Satellite Imaging and Defence Energetics Contracts
Teledyne Technologies said it is supplying advanced imaging detectors for Europe's Sentinel-3C and Fluorescence Explorer Earth observation satellites, and separately disclosed an award to provide specialist energetics for next-generation unmanned defence systems programs in Europe. The imaging hardware supports environmental monitoring missions focused on oceans, land surfaces and atmospheric conditions, while the energetics contract covers tailored components for autonomous platforms used in emerging European defence applications. The unmanned systems award is valued at $15.4 million. Teledyne Technologies, a US-based electronics group with a market cap of about $27.9 billion, supplies enabling technologies to industrial and government customers. The company said execution risk remains around integration of e2v and other imaging assets and potential margin pressure if these technically complex programmes overrun on cost or schedule.
Lockheed Martin Signs JATM Framework Agreement With U.S. Department of War
The U.S. Department of War signed a landmark framework agreement with Lockheed Martin to rapidly scale production and delivery of the AIM-260 Joint Advanced Tactical Missile, establishing a multi-year procurement pathway under the Trump administration's "Arsenal of Freedom" framework. The AIM-260 JATM is designed to replace the legacy AIM-120 AMRAAM with significantly extended range, advanced signal processing and superior lethality against peer and near-peer air threats. Lockheed Martin is the lead prime contractor, while Northrop Grumman supplies advanced solid rocket motors, warheads and sensor technologies and has delivered more than 1 million tactical solid rocket motors. RTX Corporation, the legacy manufacturer of AMRAAM, is working with the U.S. government and NATO allies to scale AMRAAM production to at least 1,900 units per year, and Boeing and General Dynamics also stand to benefit as suppliers of navigation, guidance, energetics and structural components. The framework is expected to benefit defense-focused exchange-traded funds, including the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF with $12.54 billion in net assets, the Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF with a market value of $7.63 billion, and the State Street SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF with $6.13 billion in assets under management.
GM Delivers First PAC-3 Patriot Missile Components to Lockheed Martin
General Motors has delivered its first components for Lockheed Martin interceptor missiles, providing precision castings to house the weapon for PAC-3 Patriot missiles as the defense contractor boosts production to rebuild US stocks amid the Iran war and meet international demand. Lockheed and GM signed a formal contract agreement on August 6 and the first batch of PAC-3 components was delivered August 28, a 22-day turnaround that Tim Cahill, president of Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control, called extraordinary and evidence of the company's focus on execution. Lockheed plans to triple the volume of PAC-3 production to 2,000 by the end of next year, Chief Executive Jim Taiclet said Thursday at a Morgan Stanley conference, adding that significant international demand means the company is targeting even greater than a tripling of volumes, though building the supply chain will take time. The deliveries come as government reports flag eroded US munitions supplies: the Department of Defense Inspector General said this week that expenditure on Operation Epic Fury has resulted in strategic inventory shortfalls and revealed industrial base bottlenecks, while a September 15 Congressional Budget Office report cited reduced interceptor inventories for several years and put the Iran conflict's total cost to the US military at around $38 billion as of August 1. GM, which has targeted defense as a growth area, expects defense revenues of $700 million in 2026, Chief Executive Mary Barra said in July, after the Army ordered more than 10,000 infantry squad vehicles following an initial procurement of 1,200.
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Defense Primes — United States ▲Demand
GM · Demand · Positive GM delivered its first PAC-3 Patriot missile components to Lockheed Martin under a signed contract, advancing its defense growth business.
LMT · Demand · Positive Lockheed plans to triple PAC-3 production to 2,000 and sees significant international demand, with GM supplying interceptor components.
Russia strikes Kyiv in air raid, Ukraine hits Yaroslavl oil refinery with drones
Russia launched airstrikes across Ukraine early on the 17th, while Ukrainian drones attacked one of Russia's largest oil refineries, in Yaroslavl. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russia fired 157 missiles and drones, targeting mainly Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia and Odesa regions, and air defense units shot down 131 targets. In Kyiv, at least 16 people were injured and water supplies were cut off in the eastern part of the city, while six people were injured in Odesa. According to Yaroslavl region governor Yevraev, a fire broke out at the Yaroslavl refinery but was extinguished. The refinery is located about 280 kilometers northeast of Moscow and is jointly owned by Rosneft and Gazprom Neft, with the capacity to process about 15 million tons of crude oil a year, or roughly 300,000 barrels per day. Russia's Defense Ministry said it struck Ukrainian metallurgical and electronics companies, defense plants, and energy and transport infrastructure, and that it shot down 641 Ukrainian drones over the course of a night. U.S. President Trump posted on social media on the 14th that the two countries had agreed to halt attacks on energy facilities, but both Russia and Ukraine have made clear they have not reached a ceasefire agreement, and the Yaroslavl refinery is the second Russian refinery to be attacked since Trump's post.
Guoke Military Industry's 466 million yuan military trade order expected to be delivered within 2026
Guoke Military Industry's management responded on September 17 at the 2026 semi-annual results briefing to market concerns about the delivery progress of the 466 million yuan military trade order and the shift of operating cash flow from positive to negative. Vice Chairman and General Manager Huang Junhua said that the wholly-owned subsidiary Aerospace Jingwei signed a contract last October for 466 million yuan of military trade product engine charge, with a performance period until December 25, 2026. As of the end of 2025, revenue of 32 million yuan had been recognized, and the remaining 434 million yuan is being organized for production, testing, and delivery acceptance in batches, with delivery planned to be completed within 2026. However, the order's implementation is subject to uncertainty from factors such as the international geopolitical environment, overseas demand, procedural compliance approvals, and business negotiation cycles. In the first half of this year, the company's ammunition and equipment segment was under pressure. Net profit of subsidiaries Xianfeng Company and Jiujiang Guoke fell 98% year-on-year and turned from profit to loss respectively. Huang Junhua said this was mainly due to delayed signing of order contracts, with multiple intelligent and new-type ammunition and fuzes still in the research, trial production, and appraisal stage, and that the performance pressure was a phased fluctuation. Net operating cash flow turned from positive to negative year-on-year, mainly because delayed contract signing postponed the disbursement of commencement payments. There has been no trend-based adjustment in the military prepayment model. Contract liabilities surged 232% from the beginning of the period, and inventory growth was due to production and stockpiling organized according to orders in hand. The power expansion project has fully commenced. Once completed, it will expand solid power charge and power module production capacity, taking into account military products, military trade, and commercial aerospace supporting demand. In terms of performance, the company achieved operating revenue of 384 million yuan in the first half of 2026, down 8.02% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of 59.0569 million yuan, down 23.41% year-on-year.
688543.CG · Demand · Neutral 466 million yuan military trade order delivery planned within 2026, but implementation subject to geopolitical, overseas demand and approval uncertainties.
江西航天经纬化工有限公司 · Demand · Neutral Aerospace Jingwei holds the 466 million yuan military trade engine charge contract with 434 million yuan still to be delivered within 2026.
宜春先锋军工机械有限公司 · Capital · Negative Subsidiary Xianfeng Company's net profit fell 98% year-on-year due to delayed signing of order contracts.
300722.CS · Capital · Negative Subsidiary Jiujiang Guoke turned from profit to loss in H1 amid delayed order contracts and ammunition segment pressure.
World News Roundup: UN Flags Major War as Global Risk, Saudi Arabia Issues Alert, South Korean Court Orders North Korea to Pay 44.6 Billion Won
A United Nations survey found that people around the world are increasingly worried that a large-scale war is a global risk that could materialize in the near future. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia declared a security alert covering multiple areas on Tuesday, September 15, including the city of Mecca and the city of Jeddah, after being repeatedly attacked over the past week by Iran-aligned armed groups. A South Korean court ordered North Korea to pay 44.6 billion won, or 32.5 million US dollars, in damages to the South Korean government over the destruction of the inter-Korean liaison office building in 2020, marking the first time in history that the South Korean government has sued North Korea and won. Meanwhile, the US Congressional Budget Office disclosed that the war between the United States and Iran over the past six months has already consumed more than 38 billion US dollars in budget spending, with that figure expected to rise by another 3 billion US dollars per month, and it could push inflation up by 0.5% during the first three months of 2027. Separately, Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said in an interview with Bloomberg Television yesterday that Thailand may impose an excise tax of around 30% on fully imported electric vehicles, the first disclosure of the rate that could be used to encourage automakers to produce in the country.
CBO Says Iran War Burned $38.1 Billion of U.S. Budget, Depleting Missile Interceptor Stockpile by Two-Thirds
The war with Iran has cost the U.S. Department of Defense a total of $38.1 billion through August 1, and could add another $2 billion to $3 billion per month if the fighting drags on. The Congressional Budget Office, or CBO, estimates that more than half of the cost came from procuring missiles and munitions to replace those expended, while costs from increased flying hours came to $10.4 billion and higher oil prices added another $2.7 billion. The war has also reduced the U.S. stockpile of missile interceptors by as much as two-thirds of the level that existed as of June 2025, largely because the United States helped Israel intercept Iranian attacks, and the CBO says replenishing the stockpile could take at least five years even with expanded production capacity. On the inflation impact, the CBO estimates that the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, or PCE, the inflation gauge the Fed watches most closely, will rise 0.5 point by the first quarter of 2027, while core PCE is expected to be 0.3 point higher, with gasoline and other fuel prices accounting for roughly 40% of the increase in goods prices caused by the war. The release of the new projections may intensify debate over whether the cost of this war was worthwhile, after Trump initially said the war would last only a few weeks, while Democrats campaign on an anti-war platform ahead of the U.S. midterm elections on November 3.
US Said to Plan $2.8B Bomb Sale to Israel, Largest in Years
The United States is preparing to provide Israel with thousands of bombs, the largest single transfer of such weapons in years, in a potential arms package worth as much as $2.8B, The Washington Post reported. The proposed sale is the latest in a series of Trump administration steps to improve Israel's military capacity. The package includes as many as 20,000 MK-84s and 20,000 BLU-117s, as well as up to 20,000 I-2000 Penetrator warheads, weapons described as extremely lethal. Separately, the Iran war has cost an estimated $33.4B as of June 29, according to a report on Operation Epic Fury from the lead inspector general of the Department of Defense submitted to Congress. Iranian strikes destroyed or damaged dozens of U.S. aircraft and drones, including four F-15E fighter jets, one F-35A and one A-10, with the F-35A costing about $92M per plane and the F-15E over $60M per unit.
IranUnited StatesKuwaitBahrainQatarUnited Arab EmiratesSaudi ArabiaIraq+2
Ammunition & Energetics▲2impact 4
Iran War Cost Reaches $33.4B as U.S. Munitions Shortfalls Mount
The Iran war has cost an estimated $33.4B as of June 29, according to a report on Operation Epic Fury from the Lead Inspector General of the Department of Defense submitted to Congress. That total comprises $22.3B for expended munitions, $7.4B of cumulative obligations for incremental Operation Epic Fury costs, and $3.7B in equipment losses, and it excludes costs for infrastructure repairs. The munitions expenditure has resulted in strategic inventory shortfalls and revealed industrial base bottlenecks for munitions resupply, according to the Office of the Under Secretary for Acquisition and Sustainment. Iranian strikes destroyed or damaged dozens of U.S. aircraft and drones, including four F-15E fighter jets, one F-35A and one A-10, with the F-35A costing roughly $92M per plane and the F-15E over $60M per unit, while hundreds of buildings at U.S. bases across Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman and Jordan were also damaged. Damage to U.S. diplomatic facilities in Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE is estimated at about $184M, and the report noted seven U.S. service members killed in action from Feb. 28 to June 30, seven killed in non-hostile events during Operation Epic Fury combat operations, and 417 wounded in action.
Fed Expected to Hike Rates as AI Fears and Iran War Rattle Markets
Pre-market futures fell Monday as AI concerns and the ongoing war in Iran weighed on sentiment, with the Dow down 184 points, the Nasdaq down 469 and the S&P 500 down 48 points. A former OpenAI and Anthropic employee warned of dangers to humanity from unregulated AI, sending Marvell Technologies and AMD down more than 6% in early trading while software makers CrowdStrike and ServiceNow rose. Oil prices climbed 4% to $104 per barrel on WTI and $109 per barrel on Brent crude, with $120 oil now seen as a real near-term possibility. The 10-year bond yield reached 4.983%, its highest since briefly touching 5% three years ago, while the 2-year stood at 4.647%. The Federal Open Market Committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday, with odds of a 25 basis point hike to 3.75-4.00% now around 80% following last week's Consumer Price Index, though Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces pressure from President Trump to hold rates steady.
Crude oil closes above $100 after worst attack on cargo ships since US-Iran war
West Texas and Brent crude futures both closed above $100 a barrel as investors feared that supply tightness would intensify, after reports of the largest attack on cargo ships since the war between the United States and Iran began in late February. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump of the United States insisted he does not regret deciding to launch war against Iran, and Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary, revealed on Thursday, September 10, that the US government will sanction a major bank next week to pressure Iran into ending a war that has lasted more than six months. The news website Axios reported, citing two US officials, that Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, called President Trump twice last Thursday to urge the United States to launch strikes on the Houthis, but President Trump rejected the request. On the economic front, The Wall Street Journal reported that the US Department of Defense is negotiating a loan of about $5 billion for Fluidstack, an AI cloud startup, to strengthen the US data center supply chain. Meanwhile, Micron Technology announced total compensation for direct production-line employees in Taiwan of up to the equivalent of 35 to 68 months' salary, or at least NT$1.7 million in cash, for fiscal year 2026, and Samsung Electronics and Qualcomm have still not reached an agreement to hire Samsung to produce processor chips using 2-nanometer technology, as they cannot agree on price, which could push production back to next year.
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Naval Systems & Shipbuilding ▲Demand
Defense & Geopolitical Fragmentation › Autonomous Systems & Counter-Drone ▲Demand
Fluidstack · Capital · Positive The US Department of Defense is negotiating about a $5 billion loan for Fluidstack to strengthen the US data center supply chain.
005930.KO · Supply · Negative Samsung's 2nm chip production deal with Qualcomm remains stalled over price, potentially pushing output to next year.
QCOM · Supply · Negative Qualcomm and Samsung still have no deal for Samsung to produce 2nm processor chips due to price disagreement, potentially delaying production to next year.
MU · Capital · Positive Micron announced up to 35-68 months' salary compensation for Taiwan production-line employees for FY2026, a labor/cost commitment tied to its operations.
Trump says he has no regrets about starting Iran war, ready to sanction major bank next week
US President Donald Trump has stated he has not the slightest regret over his decision to launch war with Iran, vowing that if he had to do it again he would do exactly the same, even though the conflict has political implications for the US midterm elections. In an interview with Fox News anchor Laura Ingraham on Thursday, September 10, US time, Trump said that if Iran were allowed to have nuclear weapons, the Iranian government would wipe out Israel and the Middle East entirely, and would also launch missiles at cities across the United States. Trump's stance comes as global financial markets brace for a potentially protracted Iran war, after reports that key Trump advisers, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, warned the Iran war could drag on for the remainder of Trump's term and could even extend past the presidential inauguration in January 2029. However, Trump continues to insist on claims he has repeated for months that the fighting will end immediately after the midterm elections conclude and will cause oil and natural gas prices to fall as a result. On the economic front, the US government continues to cut Iran off from the global financial network, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent revealing that the US government will sanction a major bank next week, a measure originally scheduled for announcement today, September 11, but postponed due to commemorations marking the 25th anniversary of the September 11, 2001 attacks. Bessent added that the US government had previously sanctioned Egypt's second-largest bank, forcing the closure of its Dubai branch, after finding it had processed transactions transferring up to 1.8 billion US dollars to Iran, and that Turkey's largest bank had also been sanctioned for transactions with Iran, although Bessent did not name the two banks specifically.
Teledyne Energetics UK wins $15.4M drone energetics contract in Europe
Teledyne Energetics UK, a subsidiary of Teledyne Technologies Incorporated, has secured a $15.4M contract with a European defence technology manufacturer to supply specialist energetics products for advanced unmanned systems. The agreement establishes a long-term supply framework with potential total value exceeding $50M as production requirements scale. Teledyne will deliver advanced initiation and energetic solutions designed for compact, high-reliability applications in next-generation European drone platforms. The award reinforces Teledyne's role as a key technology partner in expanding sovereign European defense manufacturing capabilities and supply-chain resilience for unmanned systems. Deliveries under the agreement will begin immediately to support ongoing development activity, with expectations of expanded volume as production increases.
TDY · Demand · Positive Teledyne Energetics UK won a $15.4M (potentially $50M+) contract to supply energetics products for European drone platforms, a concrete order for its products.
Iran Threatens to Escalate War with US; Trump Expects It to End After Midterms
Iran has signaled it is ready to escalate its war with the United States to a more intense level and will step up retaliatory strikes if the US continues to attack its territory and infrastructure. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump believes the war, now in its seventh month, could end within a few weeks and expects it to conclude immediately after the US midterm elections in November, scheduled for November 3. An unnamed senior Iranian official said Tehran has no intention of backing down under pressure from the US naval blockade and attacks on Iranian oil tankers, even as domestic economic pressure intensifies, with inflation accelerating to nearly 90% and the rial depreciating rapidly. But Iran's leadership sees the war with the US as a threat to the country's very existence, leaving it with little choice but to keep fighting. There is still no sign of the fighting easing. The US disclosed that one of its warships had to evade an Iranian attack before the US responded by destroying five Iranian energy tankers. Tehran then fired about 20 missiles at an air base in Jordan used by US forces, and also attacked US Navy vessels and several commercial ships. The Wall Street Journal reported that senior US government officials, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, raised the possibility that Iran may refuse to soften its stance even as the US increases pressure, and that the war could drag on through the remainder of Trump's presidential term, which ends in January 2029. Energy prices have risen sharply, with Brent crude topping 100 dollars a barrel on Wednesday, bringing its gain to about 65% since the start of the year, while diesel prices at US service stations hit a record high last week.
Kasikorn Thai expects SET today in a 1,610-1,630 range, Brent crude breaks above $100
Kasikorn Securities estimates the SET Index will move in a range of 1,610 to 1,630 points today, with the main pressure coming from the Middle East situation, after Brent crude oil prices surged above $100 per barrel for the first time since July, driven by escalating conflict between the United States and Iran and risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year US government bonds rose to 4.84%, the highest since 2023, after the government announced a plan to buy back long-term bonds worth up to 6 billion dollars, which was lower than the market expected. Yesterday, the SET Index closed at 1,617.89 points, down 4.00 points, or 0.25%, with foreign investors net buying Thai shares worth 3,136 million baht. Short-term strategy still focuses on waiting for pullbacks to accumulate stocks with strong earnings prospects, with today's standout picks being PTTEP and EASTW.
Trump advisers fear Iran war will drag on until 2029
Key advisers to President Donald Trump are warning that the war between the United States and Iran could drag on for the remainder of Trump's term. The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that advisers, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have discussed the possibility that the conflict with Iran will extend beyond the presidential inauguration in January 2029. Those internal discussions differ sharply from many of Trump's and his advisers' public statements, which indicated the war was nearing an end. Trump told reporters on Wednesday that the war would end immediately after the midterm elections in November. The war is set to enter its seventh month in September, far longer than Trump's original target of a four-to-six-week operation. Oil prices surged past 100 US dollars a barrel this week amid a renewed outbreak of military operations between the two sides, and Trump and Republicans are facing growing public discontent over the Iran war, including its impact on the cost of living, a trend analysts say could affect the party's chances in the midterm elections.
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Crack Spread Surges, BOE Governor Watches as Inflation Gauge
The price gap between oil products and crude oil, known as the 'crack spread,' has surged sharply, drawing attention from central bankers monitoring inflation trends. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on the 8th that he is focusing more on the rapid widening of the crack spread than on crude oil prices themselves, and economists, including those at the European Central Bank (ECB), have increasingly emphasized watching oil product prices. The background is that the Iran war and Russia's invasion of Ukraine have led to the loss of several million barrels per day of oil refining capacity, causing fuel prices to spike. In Europe, gasoline and diesel pump prices have exceeded $370 per barrel equivalent, and the ECB pointed out in late July the inflation risks stemming from refining capacity constraints. Vanguard Asset Management revealed in August that it is hedging against the risk of prolonged US inflation, and US President Trump has urged domestic oil refiners to increase production. According to Bloomberg data, European diesel futures on the 9th were about $75 per barrel higher than North Sea Brent crude, widening from about $21 on January 2. The Bank of England estimates that rising energy prices will push up the CPI inflation rate by about 0.4 percentage points in the second half of this year.
US Gas Prices Set to Hit Record High for Labor Day Holiday
In the United States, as the war in the Middle East pushes up energy costs, gasoline prices are expected to reach their highest level for this time of year during the Labor Day holiday on the 7th. According to Patrick DeHaan, an analyst at fuel price information company GasBuddy, the national average gasoline price on Labor Day is likely to reach $4.03 per gallon, significantly surpassing the previous record for Labor Day of $3.83 set in 2012. GasBuddy reports that the national average gasoline price was about $4.13 per gallon as of the 3rd, about $1 higher than the average for the same period last year. Analysts point out that $4 per gallon is a psychological threshold for many consumers. Gasoline prices are one of the most visible economic indicators for U.S. consumers and can quickly influence perceptions of the overall economy. With prices remaining above $4 per gallon for most of the year, this issue has become a persistent concern for President Trump and the Republican Party. Trump has pledged to lower energy costs and has intensified criticism of oil refiners and fuel retailers in recent weeks. Quan Dossmaratov, a research analyst at consulting firm Wood Mackenzie, notes that the high gasoline prices are primarily a supply-side issue. Both crude oil prices and refining margins have risen due to concerns that energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could be disrupted. Meanwhile, attacks on Russian refineries have tightened overall fuel inventories. U.S. refinery utilization has reached 98%, the highest level since 2018, and the government has already extended waivers of the Jones Act and ended summer gasoline regulations early to curb prices. U.S. gasoline inventories fell by 1.2 million barrels last week to 205.7 million barrels, below the five-year average of 217.6 million barrels for August. Other petroleum product prices have also surged, with U.S. diesel prices hitting a new record high this week. Additionally, according to AAA, airfare prices during the Labor Day period are expected to be 20% higher than last year.
U.S. Approves $5.75B in Weapons Sales to Saudi Arabia
The U.S. State Department on Friday approved the potential sale of Joint Direct Attack Munitions-Extend Range to Saudi Arabia for an estimated $5 billion, and a separate potential sale of AGT-1500 engines for an estimated $750 million, totaling $5.75 billion. Saudi Arabia has requested 5,000 KMU-572 and 5,000 KMU-556 JDAM guidance kits, 5,000 BLU-111 500-pound and 5,000 BLU-117 2,000-pound general purpose bombs, and 60 AGT-1500 tank engines, along with related equipment. The State Department said the proposed sale will improve Saudi Arabia's airborne defense capability, strengthen homeland defense, and enhance interoperability with U.S. and Gulf partner forces. Boeing and Honeywell will serve as principal contractors for the JDAM-ERs and AGT-1500 engines, respectively.
US diesel prices hit all-time high, pressuring economy ahead of midterms
US diesel prices hit an all-time high on Friday, climbing to $5.85 per gallon in the retail market, surpassing the previous record of $5.816 set in June 2022. The surge is driven by conflicts in Iran and Russia-Ukraine, which have disrupted supply from the Middle East and Russia, regions that together account for roughly a third of global diesel exports. US stockpiles of distillate fuels are at record lows for this time of year, and East Coast inventories are at all-time lows just as winter heating demand begins. President Trump has pressed refining executives to boost production, but global refiners like Marathon Petroleum and Shell are already running near full capacity. Diesel prices have jumped about 40% since July 18, while oil prices have risen only 5% from their low, raising concerns about broader economic impacts.
US strikes Iran, Iran announces missile and drone retaliation
The United States launched strikes on targets of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) inside Iran at 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time, according to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), following attempts to attack commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. personnel in the region. CENTCOM has not disclosed the number and locations of the targets hit, nor the munitions used. President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that the strikes were large and powerful, and were retaliation against Iran after it attempted to lay naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz and fired missiles at U.S. bases in Jordan. He warned that if Iran retaliates, the U.S. will escalate with heavier and more severe strikes. Later, Iran's Tasnim news agency reported that the Iranian military has begun decisive operations, and that U.S. bases and interests across the region will be targeted by Iranian missiles and drones. The situation makes a prolonged war more likely and could create political pressure ahead of the U.S. midterm elections in November. A Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Trump's approval rating at 33%, and only 36% of Americans approve of war with Iran. The strikes mark a new escalation in the conflict, after the U.S. and Iran resumed tit-for-tat attacks over the weekend for the first time in about a month. On Sunday, U.S. forces struck a rocket launch site on Iran's Larak Island, and Iran responded by firing missiles at U.S. bases in Jordan, but they were intercepted. The United Arab Emirates also said it intercepted Iranian drones over its waters. The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important energy transit route; before the war, about one-fifth of global oil supply passed through it, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The escalation increases risks to shipping and energy transport through the Strait, which could create volatility in global oil markets.
Goldman Sachs Warns of Global Diesel Crisis, More Than Doubles Refining Margin Forecast
Goldman Sachs has warned that the global refining market is facing tightness due to the war in the Middle East and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, prompting the bank to more than double its forecast for diesel production margins in 2027. It now expects U.S. diesel margins to be $63 per barrel, up from its previous estimate of $27, and European Union margins to be $49 per barrel, up from just $19. Goldman Sachs analysts noted that increased attacks on refineries in the Middle East and Russia are further limiting already tight global refining capacity, pushing refined product margins to new highs. Currently, disrupted refining capacity is 60% above seasonal averages, while product inventories continue to decline even as some demand has disappeared. The situation is likely to tighten further after Russia extended its diesel export ban until September amid increased attacks from Ukraine. Meanwhile, diesel demand in Brazil, the world's second-largest importer, is rising, and the approaching winter in the Northern Hemisphere in the coming months is likely to increase demand for heating fuel, which could add further pressure to an already tight diesel market.
Jianshe Industry 2026 Interim Report: Special Products Business Drives Growth in Revenue and Net Profit
Jianshe Industry released its 2026 interim report on August 26. Driven by its dual engines of special products and automotive components, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.128 billion yuan in the reporting period, up 40.27 percent year on year. Net profit attributable to the parent company was 67 million yuan, up 37.95 percent, while net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 47 million yuan, up 45.65 percent. Net cash flow from operating activities was negative 50 million yuan, a significant narrowing from negative 854 million yuan in the same period last year, mainly due to the settlement policy for special products. The special products business became the core growth engine, pushing domestic operating revenue up 44.19 percent year on year to 2.076 billion yuan, accounting for as much as 97.56 percent of the total. Overseas revenue fell 32.78 percent year on year. On the civilian products side, the company proactively adapted to the trend of vehicle electrification, steadily developed its new energy vehicle components business, and maintained a leading market share in connecting rod products. Although gross margin declined by 3.03 percentage points to 15.08 percent, net profit still achieved solid growth.
Guoke Military Industry R&D Investment Exceeds 13% of Revenue, Military Trade Business Keeps Breaking Through
Guoke Military Industry released its 2026 semi-annual report. During the reporting period, it achieved operating revenue of 384 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.02%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 59.06 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.41%; and non-GAAP net profit was 57.54 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.99%. From the business structure perspective, high-prosperity segments such as solid engine charges and military trade supporting services achieved substantial growth, while ammunition orders declined somewhat. Relying on mature solid power modules and standard ammunition equipment products, the company deepened its military trade supporting layout, and the scale of its military trade business continued to expand, becoming an important second growth curve. In the first half of the year, civilian product revenue was 49.79 million yuan, exceeding the full-year 2025 scale of 41.72 million yuan. In terms of R&D investment, R&D spending in the first half of 2026 was 50.19 million yuan, accounting for 13.07% of revenue; as of the end of June, there were 107 major projects under research, with an estimated total investment scale of 486 million yuan. In terms of capacity building, the power module construction project has fully commenced, subsidiary Aerospace Jingwei completed production line upgrades and transformation, increasing production capacity by more than 20%, and the aerospace power supporting industry project completed land acquisition.
Guangdong Hongda's interim revenue hits 10.1 billion yuan with slight profit growth; operating cash flow shows net outflow of 913 million yuan
Guangdong Hongda released its 2026 interim report, with operating revenue of 10.138 billion yuan, up 10.79 percent year on year. Net profit attributable to the parent company was 520 million yuan, up 3.23 percent, and non-GAAP net profit was 497 million yuan, up 3.28 percent. Net cash flow from operating activities was negative 913 million yuan, a significantly wider outflow than the negative 226 million yuan in the same period last year. Revenue from the defense equipment segment was 510 million yuan, surging 533.79 percent year on year, mainly due to incremental contributions from the newly consolidated subsidiary Dalian Changzhilin. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2 yuan per 10 shares, tax included, to all shareholders.
TotalEnergies CEO sees bearish crude, bullish product markets
TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne said the global oil market is bearish for crude but bullish for refined products, speaking at the ONS conference in Stavanger, Norway. Crude shipments continue to move through the Strait of Hormuz without issues, but higher shipping costs have stopped all refined product flows through the waterway, he said. Ukrainian drone strikes have reduced fuel supplies from Russia by 3 million to 3.5 million barrels per day. Pouyanne noted that shipping a very large crude carrier with capacity for 2 million barrels through Hormuz costs about $20 million, while for smaller vessels that transport refined products, this additional expense is too high, resulting in no product tankers moving through Hormuz. Benchmark crude oil trades near $90 per barrel in London, below levels seen at the start of the war, while the premium for products such as diesel compared to crude reached near its highest level in over 15 years.
South Korea says North Korea preparing to send more troops to Russia
South Korea's defense ministry said North Korea is still preparing to send additional troops to Russia, but no signs of imminent movement have been detected, according to information released by a South Korean lawmaker's office on Monday, August 24, 2026. The assessment came after Kim Yo Jong, sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, rejected claims by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Pyongyang plans to send up to 50,000 more troops to Russia. North Korea has continued to supply weapons systems to Russia, including short-range ballistic missiles, and has sent more than 15 million artillery shells to Russia, calculated as equivalent to 152-millimeter artillery rounds. South Korean officials assess that North Korean missiles used in the Ukraine war may have improved accuracy based on real-world operational data and technical guidance from Russia. Meanwhile, the Hwasong-12 intermediate-range missile, which can reach Guam, is being prepared for deployment, and intercontinental ballistic missiles have sufficient flight capability to reach the US mainland, but the reentry vehicle capability of their warheads has not yet been confirmed.
Global Diesel Crisis Threatens to Outlast Middle East War
The global diesel shortage is set to persist for months even if the Middle East war ends, as refining capacity outages and export bans tighten supply. Diesel prices in Europe have surged 70% from pre-war levels, and the U.S. diesel crack spread hit a record $102 per barrel on Monday. The International Energy Agency says about 9.6 million barrels daily of Middle East refining capacity, or a fifth of the total, has been knocked out by hostilities, while Russian export bans have removed the world's second-largest diesel exporter from the market. Bank of America analysts warn that U.S. fuel exports, which hit a record 1.9 million barrels daily, are drawing down already tight inventories and pushing diesel cracks toward record seasonal highs. Goldman Sachs notes global diesel stocks were already tight before the war, and FGE NexantECA's Eugene Lindell says Europe has a tremendous diesel problem that will get ugly with extremely high flat prices.
Raytheon Wins $22.9 Billion Tomahawk Production Contract
RTX subsidiary Raytheon has been awarded a seven-year, $22.9 billion contract to accelerate Tomahawk cruise missile production for the U.S. Navy and allies. Under the agreement, Raytheon plans to raise annual Tomahawk output to more than 1,000 missiles and provide associated support, having already delivered three times more Tomahawks in the first half of 2026 than in the same period of 2025. The company will invest in workforce, technology, supply chain, and facilities, working with hundreds of small and mid-sized U.S. suppliers to scale production. The multi-year award provides long-term visibility and could make the Tomahawk program an increasingly important contributor to Raytheon's defense growth.
Zhongtian Rocket first-half net profit 16.9345 million yuan, up 329.31% year on year
Zhongtian Rocket released its 2026 semi-annual report, achieving operating revenue of 383 million yuan, up 27.05% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 16.9345 million yuan, up 329.31% year on year. The company plans not to distribute cash dividends, not to issue bonus shares, and not to convert capital reserve into share capital. Second-quarter net profit was 12 million yuan, up 157% quarter on quarter from 5 million yuan in the first quarter.
Pentagon procurement surge to benefit major defense contractors
The Pentagon is pushing defense contractors to rapidly scale production of missile interceptors, munitions, and drones following significant inventory depletion, creating a broad procurement surge across the U.S. defense industrial base. Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg gave industry leaders 21 days to submit proposals for faster deliveries, while President Donald Trump has pressed contractors to direct more capital toward production capacity rather than buybacks and dividends. Within the roughly $1.5 trillion defense budget request, autonomous vehicles and drone defense at $122 billion and missiles and missile defense at $123.7 billion represent the two largest growth areas. Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman are the dominant large contractors with direct interceptor and drone program exposure, while Kratos Defense & Security Solutions and AeroVironment offer more focused drone and counter-drone exposure. Lockheed Martin posted $65 billion in new orders in its most recent quarter, pushing its backlog to a record $230.4 billion, and Boeing and RTX reached framework agreements with the Pentagon to boost production of SM-3 Block IIA and Block IB interceptor components.
Pentagon Awards Lockheed and Northrop Over $3 Billion for Missile Defense
The Pentagon signed a more than $3 billion deal with Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman on August 3 to boost production of Patriot and THAAD interceptor missile parts. The agreement includes a $2 billion framework to accelerate PAC-3 MSE production and a $1 billion agreement to expand monthly THAAD component supply over seven years, according to Northrop. The framework aims to triple Patriot production and quadruple THAAD output, and establishes Northrop as a second source supplier of solid rocket motors for the PAC-3 MSE. This follows last week's $58.6 billion contract for Lockheed to produce Patriot interceptor missiles.
Karman raises fiscal 2026 guidance after record Q2 revenue and bookings
Karman Holdings raised its fiscal 2026 guidance after reporting record second-quarter results, with revenue jumping 58% year over year to $182 million and adjusted EBITDA climbing 55% to $55 million. The company now expects full-year revenue of $730 million to $745 million and adjusted EBITDA of $215 million to $222.5 million, representing 57% and 51% growth at the midpoint, respectively. Quarterly bookings approached $500 million, pushing backlog to a record $1.3 billion, which provides 95% visibility to the midpoint of the revenue guidance. Tactical Missiles and Integrated Defense Systems led segment growth with a 55% revenue increase, and Karman plans to acquire Walker Precision Engineering for approximately $94 million to establish its initial European presence, subject to regulatory approval.
