Vision Stock – Bualuang Securities assesses BCH after the company maintains its 2026 revenue target of middle-single-digit growth, expecting 2H26 to accelerate, supported by patients from the Middle East (UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia). Meanwhile, the CLMV market remains weak: Myanmar faces pressure from the baht, Laos has a high base, and Cambodia continues to close border checkpoints. Thai patients are expected to recover according to normal seasonal factors. For 2027, SSO revenue has potential to improve, supported by two factors: the adjustment of the capitation rate, which is expected to be clarified by October 24, and an increase in insured persons after the Cabinet approved extending Social Security Section 33 to cover homemakers, vendors, and farmers, effective within 180 days after publication in the Royal Gazette. Regarding M&A, the company continues to negotiate several deals; the latest is renaming Ratchawet Ubon Hospital to Kasemrad Ubon Hospital, which will start recording revenue from September 2026, targeting mainly cash-paying patients in the Northeast region, including Laos and Cambodia. The research department has a slightly positive view on 2027 revenue growth, with SSO as the main driver. The risk from stricter audits of sleep test reimbursements is limited, as it accounts for only 1% of total revenue, similar to Kasemrad Ubon Hospital, which is expected to generate minimal initial revenue, based on the 2024 base of 180 million baht. Therefore, the research department maintains its 2026 normal profit forecast at 1.2 billion baht (after adjusting to include revenue from 26 chronic diseases as normal revenue), with a SELL recommendation and a target price of 10.00 baht. Krungsri Securities has a slightly positive view on the meeting's tone, due to: 1) expected revenue recovery in 2H26F both y-y and h-h, driven by international and social security revenue, while Thai cash revenue shows seasonal recovery signs; 2) upside from the SSO medical fee adjustment expected to be clarified by year-end, while the impact of the new CPAP criteria is expected to be limited; and 3) capacity expansion in 2027-29 supports long-term growth. The stock is trading at a 27F PE, lower than -1.0SD, reflecting a valuation that does not yet reflect earnings recovery and limits downside risk. The research department recommends BUY with a target price of 12.00 baht. Meanwhile, Pi Securities assesses BCH, maintaining a "BUY" recommendation and raising the fair value to 13.20 baht from 11.20 baht, using the DCF method with a WACC of 9% (previously 11% due to a lower Beta) and a terminal growth of 1%, equivalent to 24.9x PE'26E. Net profit in 1H26 accounts for 46% of the full-year estimate. The research department expects 2H26 profit to meet estimates, as it is the high season, and international patient revenue in 2H26 is expected to grow YoY from the Middle East group, such as UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, which grew +185% / +99% / +32% YoY respectively in 2Q26, despite the ongoing Middle East conflict. Regarding the social security medical fee adjustment, the research department has a positive view on BCH and expects a conclusion within October, after no capitation rate adjustment for about 4 years, including the approval for 3 groups of informal workers to enter social security (Section 33), which is expected to increase BCH's insured persons from 2027 onwards.
Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company LimitedBualuang maintains SELL with target 10.00 baht, below current price.
