The World Bank said Thailand's economy will rebound more strongly to 2.3% in 2027 and 2.4% in 2028 as pressure from oil prices eases, combined with fiscal stimulus measures that help offset a slowdown in private investment. It expects GDP to slow to 2.0% in 2026 from 2.4% growth in 2025, mainly due to higher energy prices that weigh on the tourism and logistics sectors, though the slowdown will not be as severe as previously estimated. Headline inflation is expected to rise from negative 0.1% in 2025 to 2.2% in 2026 after rebounding to as high as 2.5% in August on costlier oil. Public debt is likely to climb above 69% of GDP by 2028, driven by cost-of-living relief measures and support for the energy transition. Household debt in the first quarter of 2026 held steady at a high 86.9% of GDP, while public debt in March 2026 stood at 66.7% of GDP, approaching the legal ceiling of 70%. For Thailand's overall economy in the first half of 2026, the first quarter accelerated to 2.8% growth, but the second quarter slowed to 1.9%. Merchandise exports in July surged nearly 22% from a year earlier, and the share of computer and component exports doubled from 2023 to 8% of the export basket. However, the manufacturing production index contracted for three consecutive months, with June down 3.1%. In tourism, the first half of the year saw 15.9 million cumulative foreign arrivals, down 4.9% and 19.8% below the pre-COVID level of 2019. The World Bank raised its forecast for East Asia and Pacific growth in 2026 to 4.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from its April estimate, driven mainly by exports of artificial intelligence technology goods. It raised its forecast for Vietnam the most, to 7.4%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from its previous assessment. It warned that regional growth will peak in 2026 before slowing to 4.4% in 2027 and 4.3% in 2028. Although the overall economic figures look bright, export momentum is concentrated only in AI-related goods, with several countries including Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam depending on them for more than 70% of exports, leaving the region highly exposed if global technology investment slows or reverses in the future.