KGI Securities expects AAV to report a normalised loss of 2.05 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, hit by the US-Iran conflict that drove jet fuel prices to an abnormally high 240 dollars per barrel. This has led the company to cut flights on some routes, with passenger numbers forecast at around 4.1 million, down 16 percent year-on-year and down 34.3 percent quarter-on-quarter. The load factor is expected to fall to 79 percent, while the average ticket price is seen at 2,050 baht per ticket, up 22.3 percent year-on-year. In addition, the company is expected to book a foreign exchange loss of about 405 million baht, resulting in a net loss of 2.45 billion baht, reversing from a net profit of 214 million baht in the second quarter of 2025 and a net profit of 841 million baht in the first quarter of 2026. The research team maintains its full-year 2026 net loss forecast at 3.72 billion baht and expects a swing to a net profit of 656 million baht in 2027, while keeping a hold rating and a year-end 2027 target price of 1.10 baht.
Asia Aviation Public Company LimitedJet fuel price surge due to US-Iran conflict drives costs, leading to expected heavy loss.