Asia Plus flags 21% surge in sugar prices, picks CBG and ICHI as top beverage stocks

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Summary · why it matters

Asia Plus Securities reported that global sugar prices rose as of September 15, 2026 to 18.16 dollars per pound, up about 21% from the start of the year and 13% from a year earlier. The gain was driven by lower European output due to heatwave problems, concerns over a severe El Nino that would hit Asian production, rising demand in India after the government announced an exemption on sugar import taxes, and higher oil prices that pushed Brazil to produce ethanol instead of sugar. The research team estimates that higher sugar prices will have a negative effect on beverage stocks from higher production costs, but the impact will be fairly limited because most companies lock in annual sugar raw material prices and have already adjusted their production formulas to use sweeteners instead of sugar to a large extent. The share of sugar costs in total production costs for most companies is around 8% to 10%, while COCOCO has the lowest sugar cost share at less than 2%. The stock expected to be hit hardest is SAPPE, given its export share of more than 70%, while the stock expected to be least affected is COCOCO, though the research team is still watching the impact of El Nino on key raw materials such as mature coconuts and aromatic coconuts. The research team maintained an equal-weight investment stance on the beverage sector, expecting group-wide earnings to be unexciting in the third quarter of 2026 due to the low season, but to accelerate again in the fourth quarter of 2026, and picked CBG and ICHI as top stocks on expectations that both companies will post earnings growth on both a quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year basis and hit their yearly highs in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Impact on assets 5

Consumer Staples± Mixed · 4 stocks
Thai Coconut Public Company Limited
COCOCO
± MixedSupplyrelevance

COCOCO has the lowest sugar cost share (<2%) so is least affected by sugar prices, but the team is watching El Nino's impact on coconut raw materials.

Carabao Group Public Company Limited
CBG
▼ NegativeSupplyrelevance

Higher global sugar prices raise production costs for Carabao, a beverage maker with ~8-10% sugar cost share, though annual price locks limit the hit.

Others▲ · 1 stocks
⛏Sugar No.11 Futures
SUGAR
▲ PositiveSupplyrelevance

Sugar No.11 futures rose ~21% YTD on lower European output, El Nino concerns, India import-tax exemption demand, and Brazil ethanol diversion.

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