The research department of Asia Plus Securities has issued an analysis of Thai Airways International Public Company Limited, or THAI, after the company's board resolved to investigate the facts surrounding the flood incident in late September 2026, as well as to review its crisis management process. During the investigation, the board resolved to suspend the CEO from duty. THAI resumed all flights from 3 October after cutting 15 and 9 flights on 1 and 2 October respectively. Asia Plus research views that the impact of the flight reductions, compared with all TG flights at Suvarnabhumi, which averaged about 120 flights per day in August, on the departure side alone, remains limited for fourth-quarter 2026 operating results. Going forward, the focus should be on the investigation and on long-term solutions to ground handling problems, including the adequacy of staffing, equipment, and emergency response processes, to reduce the chance of a repeat incident, especially before the high season. On management, although the CEO's term is due to end in January 2027, the situation may add uncertainty to the company's strategic direction, which bears continued monitoring. As for the overall effect on 2027 forecasts, jet fuel, which accounts for about 37% of OPEX, remains the key variable for profit recovery. Normal profit for 2027 is expected to recover 25% from a low base, assuming jet fuel at 117 US dollars per barrel, based on the IATA jet fuel year-to-date average through 25 September 2026 of 161 US dollars per barrel. The recommendation is to buy THAI with a 2027 target price of 6.80 baht.
Thai Airways International Public Company LimitedAsia Plus reiterates a buy rating with a 2027 target price of 6.80 baht and expects 25% profit recovery.
Asia Plus Group Holdings PCL