Asia Plus Securities rates THAI with a 2027 target price of 6.80 baht and maintains a Tactical Buy recommendation after the company resumed all flights from 3 October 2026, having cut 15 and 9 flights on 1-2 October respectively. The board resolved to investigate the facts surrounding the late-September 2026 flood incident and to review the crisis management process, suspending the CEO during the investigation and appointing board member Samrit Samniang as acting CEO from 2 October 2026. Although the impact of the flight cuts on the fourth quarter of 2026 remains limited compared with TG's total flights at Suvarnabhumi, which averaged about 120 departures per day in August, investors still need to monitor the investigation and long-term solutions to ground handling problems, including the adequacy of staffing, equipment and emergency response processes. Employee expenses in the first half of 2026 accounted for 12% of OPEX, and every 10% change in employee expenses would move profit by 7%. Normalised profit for 2027 is forecast to recover 25% from a low base, with jet fuel, at about 37% of OPEX, the key variable, on an assumption of 117 US dollars per barrel versus the IATA jet fuel average year-to-date through 25 September 2026 of 161 US dollars per barrel. The share price is down 18% year-to-date, the worst performer in the sector compared with the SET's 25% gain, and Brent holding below 85 US dollars per barrel is likely to be a positive sentiment for the stock.
Thai Airways International Public Company LimitedAsia Plus maintains Tactical Buy with a 6.80 baht 2027 target after THAI resumed all flights from 3 October 2026.
Asia Plus Group Holdings PCL