ASL Securities estimates that Carabao Group's normalized profit in the second quarter of 2026 will recover from the previous quarter due to seasonal factors, but will still decline year-on-year due to a high profit base and weak sales in Cambodia. It expects earnings to return to year-on-year growth from the third quarter of 2026 onward, driven by a recovery in international markets and growth in new businesses. The research team notes that international operations are showing clear signs of recovery, especially in Myanmar and Vietnam, while the distribution business continues to expand and revenue from contract manufacturing under the Love Potion brand is playing a larger role. Domestically, sales through modern trade and retail stores are still growing. Although gross margins are pressured by raw material costs, they are expected to gradually recover in the second half of the year. The research team views CBG's valuation as attractive, with limited downside risk to the share price from a 2 billion baht share buyback program running from May 25 to November 24, 2026, with an estimated average buyback price of around 40 baht per share. Additional positive factors include the earnings recovery trend from the third quarter of 2026 and the possibility of an El Niño phenomenon in the second half, which could boost beverage consumption. For 2026 targets, the company aims for 20% domestic revenue growth, increasing its energy drink market share to 32%, and expanding CJ Mall branches to 2,470, an increase of 500 stores. In international markets, it targets 10% sales growth in Vietnam and 20% in Myanmar, while hoping for a recovery in Cambodia after strategy adjustments. The research team maintains its 2026 net profit forecast at 3 billion baht, up 39% from the previous year, supported by total revenue expected to grow to 24 billion baht, or a 10.6% increase, driven by a record high energy drink market share of 30 to 32%, continued CJ Mall expansion, and sales growth in Myanmar and Vietnam, along with a recovery in Cambodia. Although gross margins may be affected by higher natural gas prices, with the gross profit margin forecast at 26.7% this year, and selling and administrative expenses will rise due to the renewal of the Carabao Cup sponsorship until 2029, the research team believes that revenue growth and the recovery of international businesses will be key factors driving CBG's earnings back to strong growth this year, with a target price of 52 baht per share.
Carabao Group Public Company LimitedASL expects CBG's normalized profit to recover from Q3 2026, with 39% net profit growth forecast, and notes attractive valuation and share buyback support.