ASL recommends buying PTG shares, setting a 2027F target price of 8.70 baht based on a PBV of 1.22 times, which is close to the three-year historical average of 1.69 times minus one standard deviation. The view is that PTG has passed its trough for the year and is beginning to show signs of recovery. The 2026F net profit estimate has been revised down by 44 percent to 534 million baht, a contraction of 47.7 percent year-on-year, reflecting losses in the first quarter of 2026 and a gradual recovery in net profit that will become pronounced in the fourth quarter of 2026F, which is the high season. The second quarter 2026F net profit is forecast at 95 million baht, down 69.5 percent year-on-year but returning to profitability from the previous quarter, as the marketing margin recovers after the government lifted the retail fuel price cap, supporting a gross margin of 9 percent, up from 7.7 percent in the second quarter of 2025 and 7.5 percent in the first quarter of 2026. Total revenue is expected at 5.4 billion baht, down 3.9 percent quarter-on-quarter and 3.3 percent year-on-year, with oil business sales volumes declining due to high oil prices dampening demand and the low season, while the non-oil business helps limit the contraction. SG&A to sales rose to 8.65 percent from 6.9 percent in the second quarter of 2025 and 7.7 percent in the previous quarter, due to higher transport costs and the expansion of Punthai Coffee branches. For the full year 2026F, total revenue is forecast at 230 billion baht, up 3.9 percent year-on-year, with the oil business increasing in line with higher global oil prices and the non-oil business, especially Punthai Coffee, seeing higher sales from branch expansion. Gross margin is expected at 8.9 percent, up from 7.8 percent in 2025, supported by the non-oil business where gross margin rises to 33.1 percent from 27.4 percent in 2025, due to business restructuring to reduce reliance on the oil business. However, SG&A to sales reaches 8.4 percent, up from 7 percent in 2025, because of the increase in branch numbers and sales support budgets. The dividend yield for 2026F is expected at 2.5 percent. On the technical front, during the day the price tested the support at the previous candle's low and saw buying pressure that closed the candle with a positive signal. The trend has a chance to reverse upward, with support at 7.25 to 7.20 baht and resistance at the 13-day SMA of 7.50 baht. If it breaks through and holds firmly with increasing trading volume, it will be a buy signal, with the next major resistance at the previous double top of 7.90 baht. For those holding the stock, the recommendation is to hold or buy more, with a chance to test resistances at 7.50, 7.90, and 8.45 baht. For those without the stock, a short-term buy is recommended, focusing on holding support at 7.25 and 7.05 baht, which should not be breached.
PTG Energy PCLASL recommends buying PTG with a target price of 8.70 baht, citing profit recovery after passing the trough.
