Barclays Upgrades Humana to Overweight Ahead of Medicare Star Ratings

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Barclays upgraded Humana to overweight from equal-weight on Friday, sending the health insurer's shares up 6% and as much as 9% intraday, the stock's largest gain since June. Analyst Andrew Mok cited greater conviction that Humana will flip several Medicare contracts to bonus status in the October Star ratings release, expected around Oct. 8. The most critical of those is contract H5216, which covers 2.4 million lives and represents the key component of Humana's long-term 2028 EPS target, worth approximately $1.5 billion of EBIT and $9 of EPS. Mok raised the probability that H5216 will be upgraded to 75%, saying the company enters the 2028 ratings cycle in a much stronger position than a year ago. Barclays also lifted its price target on Humana to $515 from $407.

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