BCP Jumps 5% as Broker Highlights SAF Project, Sees Q3 EBITDA Topping 2 Billion Baht, Buy Rating with 56 Baht Target

Bualuang Securities said that BCP's sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant, the first in Thailand, began operating in May 2026 with a production capacity of 7,000 barrels per day, or 1 million liters per day, and can switch production between SAF and renewable diesel. The main feedstock is used cooking oil, about 40% of which comes from domestic sources and 60% is imported, while the company has long-term feedstock supply contracts with major food and retail operators in Thailand. SAF demand is being driven by increasingly stringent fuel blending mandates worldwide, with the EU starting at 2% in 2025 and rising to 6% in 2030, while Thailand begins with a 1% target in 2026 before increasing to 1-2% in 2027-29 and 3-5% in 2030-32. Global SAF demand is expected to rise from 3.6 billion liters in 2026 to 4.5 billion liters in 2027, although rising supply may pressure margins somewhat going forward. The business's highlight is its profitability, with the SAF spread rising from about 1,000 US dollars per ton in 2025 to roughly 1,300 US dollars per ton in 2026 year-to-date, or about 3 times the spread of conventional jet fuel. The plant generated EBITDA of about 1 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, and SAF EBITDA is expected at 4 billion baht in 2026 and 6 billion baht in 2027. Even in a worst case where the margin falls to 800 US dollars per ton, it would still be about 2 times the spread of conventional jet fuel and generate 2027 EBITDA of about 4 billion baht. There is also upside from a 43% capacity expansion to 10,000 barrels per day, which is not yet fully reflected in long-term estimates and would be additional upside if the company proceeds with the project. Bualuang Securities maintained its Hold recommendation with a target price of 57 baht and an equal-weight stance on the energy sector. Key issues to watch are the direction of SAF margins as new supply gradually enters the market and clarity on further capacity expansion.

Analysts at several securities firms hold a positive view on Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited, or BCP, after its sustainable aviation fuel business, SAF, began contributing significantly to earnings. BCP's SAF plant started commercial operations on 21 May 2026, with an investment of about 8.5 billion baht and a production capacity of roughly 7,000 barrels per day, or about 1 million litres per day. In the second quarter of 2026, its average capacity utilisation rate was approximately 6,800 barrels per day, with product sales of about 39 million litres, generating EBITDA of roughly 1 billion baht for BCP, or nearly 4% of total EBITDA. Asia Plus Securities gives a trading view with a target price of 58 baht. Trinity Securities recommends a speculative buy with a target price of 55 baht. Yuanta Securities Thailand has upgraded its recommendation to buy with a target price of 58 baht, and Land and Houses Securities maintains a buy recommendation with a target price of 56 baht. Over the longer term, BCP plans to raise SAF production capacity from 7,000 barrels per day to about 10,000 barrels per day within five years, largely using existing infrastructure. Meanwhile, demand for SAF looks set to grow on the back of Thailand's plan to push SAF blending, which aims to start at 1% and increase in later phases. However, competition for UCO feedstock still bears watching, as it could put pressure on costs.

Prime Minister and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul held talks with Wouter van Wersch, Executive Vice President for International Affairs at Airbus, and Bert Porteman, a representative of Airbus Thailand, on ways to upgrade and expand cooperation between Thailand and Airbus in the aviation industry, space technology, human resource development, and clean energy. The Prime Minister affirmed the policy of promoting the aviation industry and future industries, and asked Airbus to consider broadening cooperation to cover more areas by building on the cooperation models the company has with other countries and extending them to Thailand. On clean energy, the Prime Minister proposed that Airbus promote the use of sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, produced in Thailand, using Thai raw materials and agricultural output as part of the production chain. In addition, Airbus plans to establish a Center of Excellence in Thailand as a hub for developing knowledge, technology, and personnel, linking Airbus's global network to Thailand. The Prime Minister also proposed expanding cooperation in space technology and security, building on existing cooperation with the Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency, or GISTDA, and Thaicom Public Company Limited, as well as discussing cooperation with Thai Airways International Public Company Limited to support the goal of pushing Thailand to become the region's aviation hub.

Mom Luang Pikthong Thongyai, Chief Executive Officer of PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited, or OR, has unveiled a strategy for its non-oil business, saying it is a key profit engine amid volatile oil prices. The company is pressing ahead with expanding Cafe Amazon coffee shops both inside and outside its service stations, focusing on new locations in hospitals and community areas such as temples, and is considering developing a mobile store format. It is also teaming up with partners on collaboration products such as soy sauce to attract younger customers. On progress in its partnership with Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited, or CENTEL, to develop budget hotels within service stations, the company has finalised six pilot locations: Bangkok, Kanchanaburi, Ayutthaya, Phuket, Chonburi and Songkhla. Five are branches inside service stations and one is outside a service station, in the Don Mueang area near the Red Line train station opposite Terminal 2. The hotels are five-storey buildings with about 79 rooms per branch, priced at roughly 800 to 100 baht per night. Construction takes about one year, with a gradual opening in 2027-2028. The project has double-digit returns on investment and profit margins. OR is also the first company to offer sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, at service stations for regional airports, blending Jet A1 fuel with biofuel made from used cooking oil at a ratio of about 1%, priced roughly five times higher than normal Jet A1.

Energy Absolute, or EA, has announced a target to raise sales of its bio-PCM product to 100 million baht within three years. Chatphol Sriprathum, the company's Chief Executive Officer, said that PCM, or Phase Change Material, which is extracted from palm oil, currently generates only modest sales and revenue, with its main markets being Japan and Korea, and that EA is the first and only Thai operator producing and exporting PCM at present. At the same time, the company is pressing ahead with the development of Green Diesel, or HVO, to meet demand for clean energy in overseas markets, and is preparing to expand investment in renewable energy businesses, including wind power plants and waste-to-energy plants, to offset revenue from the Adder scheme of its existing projects as those gradually expire. In addition, Green Technology Research Company Limited, part of the EA group, together with the Program Management Unit for Competitiveness, announced the winners of the Up the Phase project, narrowing 107 applicant teams from across the country down to 10 finalists. The winning entries were BioTemp 22, an innovation that controls temperatures between 20 and 24 degrees Celsius using Bio-PCM for platelet transport, and Evi-PCM Block, an innovation that locks in temperature to protect environmental evidence.

Uniper has signed a capacity reservation agreement for future sustainable aviation fuel supply from Syzygy Plasmonics' NovaSAF platform, joining a growing list of aviation fuel buyers backing the company's biogas-to-SAF technology. The agreement adds commercial traction to Syzygy's planned NovaSAF facilities in Central and South America, where NovaSAF-1 in Uruguay is approaching a final investment decision. Syzygy said the deal for its dual-certified pathway helps enhance the European Union's ability to meet mandate targets for both bio and RFNBO SAF. Syzygy CEO Trevor Best said Uniper's decision reflects the commercial traction the platform is attracting at the moment it is most needed to meet mandate volumes, while Uniper SVP New Energies Benedikt Messner said securing access to the technology is another step in building the company's position in a market with significant growth potential. NovaSAF is Syzygy's commercial project platform, converting biogas to sustainable aviation fuel using its proprietary Rigel photocatalytic reactor, with facilities planned globally.