KGI Securities Thailand notes that BCPG's net profit in the second quarter of 2026 was 155 million baht, swinging from a net loss of 651 million baht in the second quarter of 2025, but down 79 percent from the previous quarter. Core profit, excluding foreign exchange losses, was 182 million baht, up 38 percent year-on-year but down 71 percent quarter-on-quarter, as the gas-fired power plant project in the United States entered the low season and the Monsoon wind power project was also in its low season. Meanwhile, core profit for the first half of 2026 was 812 million baht, up 146 percent year-on-year, accounting for 38 percent of the analyst's full-year 2026 core profit forecast. Full-year 2026 core profit is expected to grow 19 percent year-on-year, driven by higher contract prices for US projects and a full year of revenue recognition from the Monsoon project, before 2027 core profit drops 35 percent due to the absence of profit from two strategic gas-fired power plants in the US, Liberty and Patriot. The analyst views second-half 2026 profit as stronger than the first half, with third-quarter 2026 core profit expected to be the year's peak, supported by the high season for US projects and the rainy season for hydropower plants in Laos. In addition, the PJM market has improved significantly, with the 2026 spark spread rising 70 percent year-on-year to 3.4 US cents per kilowatt-hour, 13 percent above the forward curve, boosting margins for US projects, though partially offset by the sale of two Hamilton gas-fired plants totaling 426 megawatts. The Bloomberg consensus as of August 5, 2026 gives an average recommendation of buy with an average target price of 8.60 baht. BCPG shares trade at a low price-to-earnings ratio of just 6 times, but ESG issues and concerns over reinvestment of asset sale proceeds continue to weigh on investor sentiment.
BCPG Public Company LimitedHigh season for US projects and rainy season for Laos hydropower boost second-half profit; PJM spark spread up 70%.
