Summary · why it matters
Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited assesses that the profits of hospital groups will pass their lowest point in the second quarter of 2026 and recover in the second half of the year, supported by the arrival of the high season and seasonal epidemics that increase the use of services by Thai patients. Meanwhile, foreign patients show a continuous recovery trend, with the July revenue of most hospitals accelerating clearly from the first half of the year. It is expected that profits in 2027 will grow better due to recovering revenue and improved operating leverage, as well as positive structural factors from the growth of health insurance and the opportunity to raise social security medical service rates, which will be an upside to profits and support a valuation re-rating. Currently, the hospital group trades at a PE for 2027 lower than -1.0 standard deviation. The preferred stocks are BDMS (target price 25 baht) and PR9 (target price 24 baht), while BCH (target price 12 baht) is the preferred stock in the social security hospital group. Data from the Department of Disease Control indicates that the influenza situation has accelerated during July to August, with the average number of patients per week increasing from 9,400 cases in July 2025 to 14,200 cases in July 2026 (+50% year-on-year) and further increasing to 17,341 cases during August 1-23, 2026 (+35% year-on-year), reflecting a more severe outbreak during the rainy season. This will support the use of services by Thai patients in the third quarter of 2026 and help accelerate the recovery of domestic revenue after a rather weak first half. In July, the revenue of BDMS, BCH, CHG, and PR9 grew by 8%, 7%, 5%, and 7-8% year-on-year, respectively, compared to the first half at +1%, -1%, +3%, and +3% year-on-year. Meanwhile, BH is expected to see revenue growth of 3% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, similar to the first half, reflecting a better recovery across almost the entire group, supported by the treatment of complex diseases, the recovery of Thai and foreign patients, as well as seasonal factors and epidemics during the rainy season.
Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited
Praram 9 Hospital Public Company Limited
Chularat Hospital Public Company Limited
Bumrungrad Hospital PCL
Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company Limited