BEM to benefit most from cheaper fare policy, no concession buyback

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Krungsri Securities says BEM will be the main beneficiary of the 17 to 45 baht electric train fare policy starting 1 January 2027, with no concession buyback because the cost is as high as 400 billion baht. The deputy transport minister confirms that the Mass Rapid Transit Authority will manage all electric train lines, including transferring the Green Line and Gold Line from the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration, and will allocate a compensation budget for the private sector of 4.6 billion baht per year, based only on current ridership. BEM will keep its profitable Blue Line and Orange Line, and increased ridership could boost 2027 profit by as much as 19 percent if it rises 20 percent from the base case. Meanwhile, BTS will benefit less as it continues to book losses from the Pink Line and Yellow Line, although a 40 percent rise in ridership could reduce the loss to 1.2 billion baht from 1.6 billion baht. BEM remains a top pick with a target price of 8.2 baht.

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