Bernstein raised its price target on SanDisk to $3,000 from $1,700, citing a fundamental shift in how memory makers are structuring long-term supply agreements that materially reduces earnings downside risk. Analyst Mark Newman said the new generation of memory LTAs features fixed or range-bound pricing, upfront financial commitments, and contract terms of three to five years, a stark contrast to older contracts that heavily favored customers. Bernstein estimates SanDisk's floor price under its recently signed LTAs at $0.29 per gigabyte, in line with the firm's second-quarter 2026 average selling price estimate, and models that with 60% of volumes covered by LTAs, fiscal 2030 earnings per share would still reach $214 even under a 72% peak-to-trough price decline, versus $81 without LTA protection. The firm also raised its base-case EPS estimates for SanDisk to $243 for fiscal 2027 and $272 for fiscal 2028, with bull-case estimates of $350 and $400, respectively, reflecting expectations of a stronger pricing upcycle and reduced downside risk. The $3,000 target is based on 11 times Bernstein's fiscal 2028 EPS estimate, and the broker maintains an Outperform rating, arguing that lower earnings volatility from the LTA structure is not being factored into current multiples.
Sandisk CorpBernstein raised price target to $3,000 and maintains Outperform, citing new LTA structure reducing earnings downside risk
Micron Technology Inc