Beverage Stocks Weaken on Soft Exports, COCOCO-CBG Highlighted

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Asia Plus Securities noted that the Ministry of Commerce reported July 2026 export figures, with most beverage products related to the stocks under the research department's coverage showing weaker exports. Compared to the previous month, exports of energy drinks (mainly CBG and OSP) decreased 3% MoM, primarily due to the contraction in the Myanmar market. Coconut water exports (mainly COCOCO) contracted 5% MoM, following declines in the China, Taiwan, and Australia markets. Meanwhile, ready-to-drink sweet beverages (mainly SAPPE) decreased 7% MoM due to weaker markets in Myanmar and South Korea. On a year-on-year basis, energy drink exports contracted 16% YoY due to the high base in the Cambodian market last year before the Thai-Cambodian conflict intensified, coupled with import regulation issues in Myanmar. Coconut water continued to contract 9% YoY due to the sharp decline in the Chinese market. Only ready-to-drink sweet beverages grew 36% YoY, driven by strong expansion in the Philippines, India, and Australia markets. In total, over seven months, Thai beverage exports amounted to 28 billion baht (-9% YoY). For the overall beverage export picture in 3Q26, on a QoQ basis, the research department expects a mixed picture due to differing seasonal factors (positive for ready-to-drink sweet beverages and coconut water, but negative for energy drinks). However, overall, growth is expected on a YoY basis from the low base in 3Q25. The research department maintains a "neutral" rating on the beverage group. Although the overall export outlook for 2026 is relatively weak, domestic sales trends remain strong, coupled with higher margins, leading the research department to expect total normalized profit for the group to grow 11% in 2026, with COCOCO and CBG selected as top picks. Specifically, COCOCO is expected to see 3Q26 profit growth both QoQ and YoY, driven by higher margins and domestic sales, and is expected to have the most outstanding profit growth in the group in 2026 and 2027, supported by lower coconut costs boosting margins. As for CBG, 3Q26 profit is expected to be flat QoQ but grow YoY, driven by strong domestic sales, with profit expected to accelerate to its peak of the year in 4Q26.

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Consumer Staples± Mixed · 4 stocks
Sappe Public Company Limited
SAPPE
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Ready-to-drink sweet beverages grew 36% YoY, driven by strong expansion in Philippines, India, and Australia.

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