Yuanta Securities stated that the CFP project is one of the key elements of TOP's long-term strategy to strengthen its core business. Once fully operational, it will raise refining capacity from 275 kbd to 400 kbd and increase the ability to process heavy crude to 40–50%, while reducing the use of light crude to 40–50%. Construction progress as of July under the EPCM contract stands at 34.87%. The company is confident it can begin commercial operation of CDU#4 with a capacity of 220 kbd within the second quarter of 2027 and reach full commercial operation of the entire project in the third quarter of 2028. The Energy Recovery Unit, or ERU, part of the CFP project, has a power generation capacity of 250 MW and 175 tonnes of steam per hour. On September 1, TOP and GPSC informed the market that they are in negotiations over a purchase agreement for the ERU, with a conclusion expected by October 30. If the transaction does not materialize and TOP invests in the ERU unit itself at a value of 757 million dollars, the brokerage views TOP's financial position as strong enough, supported by a Net Debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.4 times in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 3.7 times in the fourth quarter of 2025. It maintains a TRADING recommendation, rolling over to a fair value at the end of 2027 of 74.00 baht, and if referencing an average PBV of 1 time, it preliminarily expects a fair value in the range of 84–87 baht per share.
Thai Oil Public Company LimitedYuanta highlights TOP's CFP project progress and strong balance sheet, maintaining a TRADING call with fair value of 84–87 baht.
Global Power Synergy PCLGPSC is in negotiations with TOP over a purchase agreement for the ERU unit, with conclusion expected by October 30; outcome and terms unclear.
