Analysts at Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited raised their 2026 profit forecasts for PTT by 9% to 149 billion baht and for PTTEP by 8% to 79 billion baht. They also lifted their 2026 Brent oil price assumption to 94 US dollars per barrel from 85 US dollars per barrel, expecting crude prices to remain elevated in the fourth quarter of 2026, or to touch a range of 90 to 100 US dollars per barrel, amid supply risks in the Middle East. The renewed clashes between the United States and Iran pushed the volume of halted oil production in the Persian Gulf from about 8.3 million barrels per day in July to more than 10 million barrels per day in August, while shipments through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 7.6 million barrels per day. As a result, Brent, which averaged 105 US dollars per barrel in the second quarter of 2026, is still around 97 US dollars per barrel in the third quarter of 2026 to date. The outlook for 2027, however, is different, because although demand is recovering, supply is likely to return much faster. Global oil demand in 2027 is estimated to rise by an average of about 2.5 million barrels per day, while supply from the return of Middle Eastern output, recovering volumes through Hormuz, and production outside OPEC+ could increase by an average of as much as 8.6 million barrels per day, clearly outpacing demand growth. Brent is therefore expected to fall to 70 US dollars per barrel in 2027 amid a supply glut. A 2027 sensitivity analysis indicates that if oil stands at 85 US dollars per barrel, PTT and PTTEP profits have upside of 15% and 25% respectively, but if it falls to 60 US dollars per barrel, they have downside of 13% and 20%. The brokerage maintains an equal weight on the energy sector, picking PTT as its top stock with a buy rating and a target price of 48 baht, while keeping a hold rating on PTTEP with a target price of 168 baht.
PTT Public Company LimitedBualuang Securities raised its 2026 profit forecast for PTT by 9% to 149 billion baht and named it top pick with a buy rating.
PTT Exploration and Production Public Company LimitedBualuang Securities raised its 2026 profit forecast for PTTEP by 8% to 79 billion baht on higher Brent assumptions.
