Brokerage recommends "buy" on GULF, maintains 2026 revenue and EBITDA growth target of 12-15%

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A securities analysis recommends "buying" GULF shares, expecting operating results in the second half of 2026 to continue growing, and maintains guidance for 2026 revenue and EBITDA growth of around 12-15%. This is supported by roughly 700 MW of new capacity in the second half, including 623 MW of renewable power plants expected to generate additional profit of about 600 million baht per year, and the 10 MW Chiang Mai community waste-to-energy plant expected to generate profit of about 120 million baht per year. Meanwhile, the LNG Import and Optimization business is expected to generate profit of about 1.5 billion baht this year. On the US side, the Jackson power plant has already benefited from a Capacity Payment increase from 270 to 329 dollars per MW-day, driven by demand from data centers in the PJM market. As for GSA01, with a capacity of 25 MW, customers have used full capacity since June, allowing full profit recognition in the second half of 2026. The first roughly 200 MW of data centers that have already been committed are expected to be fully operational in 2027, before capacity expands to approximately 1,000 MW by late 2028. The company continues to expand its Digital Infrastructure to be fully integrated, with plans for equity investment of approximately 130-140 billion baht over five years, allocating about 10% to GULF Edge, which could rise to 15% depending on data center growth. On sentiment, the view is that the price decline over the Singtel share overhang issue is nearing resolution, after Singtel sold 416 million GULF shares, or 2.8% of total shares, in June 2026, reducing its stake from 7.73% to 4.95%, with a lock-up condition barring further sales of the remaining shares for 90 days, which will expire around September 21-22. On technical factors, the stock tested and held its psychological support at 60.00 and reversed upward with a positive signal candlestick, with resistance at 61.25 and 63-63.25. For those holding the stock, the recommendation is to hold or buy more; for those without the stock, the recommendation is a short-term buy, focusing on holding support at 60/59 and it should not fall below that.

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