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NVIDIA CorporationBTIG's Krinsky Warns Market Signals Echo 2000 Dot-Com Peak
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BTIG warned Wednesday that a growing set of market signals increasingly resemble those seen around the 2000 dot-com peak, even as technology stocks carry major indexes near record highs, in a note from chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky titled "Super-ficial Rally." Krinsky said dispersion within tech and AI is widening, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index about 14% below its June highs, and only three of the index's 30 names closer to their highs than the SOX itself, while 10 remain more than 30% below 52-week highs and the average name is down about 26%. He drew a parallel with 2000, when many chip stocks made fresh highs even after the SOX had peaked. Krinsky also pointed to unusual breadth signals in the S&P 500, which has seen five straight days with more 52-week lows than highs even as it rallied back near record highs, with the index up 1.2% over the past month while nine of 11 sectors fell. Banks remain a concern, with the KBW Bank Index more than 10% below a recent high while the S&P 500 sits within 1% of a 52-week high, a divergence last seen in January 2000. Krinsky wrote that it is hard to fight tech momentum right now, but the extreme dispersion and increasing number of stats that rhyme with 2000 cannot be ignored, adding that the near term likely means more choppy trading while he remains cautious over the medium term.
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