Carrier Global Faces Earnings Pressure Amid 11% Undervaluation Narrative

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Carrier Global is under scrutiny ahead of its upcoming quarterly report, which is expected to show year-over-year declines in both earnings and revenue, with a negative Earnings ESP raising concerns about near-term profitability. The stock last closed at $68.10, and the most followed valuation narrative on Simply Wall St places fair value at $76.31, suggesting the shares are about 11% undervalued based on modeled cash flows. Bulls highlight the company's scale and long-term shareholder returns, including a 3-year total shareholder return of 30.32%, while bears point to falling EPS, muted organic growth, and a current P/E of 44.1x that sits well above the US Building industry average of 21.8x. Carrier's strategic push into the data center cooling market and operational efficiency efforts are seen as potential drivers of future earnings growth, though risks remain from tariff exposure and weaker performance in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.

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Carrier Global Corp
CARR
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Expected year-over-year declines in earnings and revenue, negative Earnings ESP, and falling EPS.