CGSI expects hospital group Q3 2026 profit to grow 11% on foreign patients and flu

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CGS International Securities (Thailand) estimates that the combined net profit of the six hospital companies under its coverage will grow 11% in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the same period last year and 31% from the previous quarter, with total revenue expected to grow 11% year on year and 13% quarter on quarter. The main driver is the merger between Ramkhamhaeng Hospital Public Company Limited, or RAM, and Thonburi Healthcare Group Public Company Limited, or THG. Excluding THG's results, which have been consolidated into RAM's financial statements, the group's total revenue is expected to grow about 8% year on year and 13% quarter on quarter. Most hospitals, with the exception of Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company Limited, or BDMS, are expected to post revenue growth of about 5% year on year, supported by foreign patients, particularly from Myanmar and the Middle East. BDMS is expected to post the group's highest revenue growth at about 10%, driven by a low revenue base, an increase in patient numbers, and outbreaks of influenza and COVID-19, with the flu outbreak in early the third quarter of 2026 more severe than in the third quarter of 2025. On gross margins, most operators are expected to see gross profit margin decline year on year amid intensifying competition and limited pricing power, but improve from the previous quarter on higher bed occupancy rates. The research team views Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited, or BCH, and Praram 9 Hospital Public Company Limited, or PR9, as having standout performance. PR9 is expected to post net profit of 248 million baht in the third quarter of 2026, up 11% year on year and 35% quarter on quarter, while BCH's net profit in the first nine months of 2026 is expected to account for 71% of its full-year 2026 net profit forecast. The research team maintains an Overweight rating, picking Bumrungrad Hospital Public Company Limited, or BH, and PR9 as its top picks in the group due to their higher share of foreign patients than peers.

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THG's results are consolidated into RAM's financial statements following their merger, contributing to the group's 11% profit growth.

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