CGSI Expects Thai Aviation Group Earnings to Rebound Strongly in 2027, Favors THAI on Lower Fuel Costs and New Fleet

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Summary · why it matters

CGSI, or CGS International (Thailand), estimates that the net profits of Airports of Thailand, or AOT, and Thai Airways International, or THAI, will grow 60% and 24% respectively in 2027 from the same period a year earlier. In the third quarter of 2026, AOT is expected to post a normal profit of 4.4 billion baht, up 9% from the same period a year earlier and up 16% from the previous quarter. THAI is expected to post a normal profit of 2.8 billion baht, down 48% from the same period a year earlier but up 138% from the previous quarter. For THAI, the passenger load factor is expected to recover to 76% in the third quarter of 2026 from 71.5% in the second quarter of 2026, but passenger yield is expected to fall 10% from the previous quarter to 2.87 baht per RPK after it passed on some of the lower fuel costs through fare cuts and fuel surcharges. THAI also plans to take delivery of 14 Airbus A321neo aircraft and 12 Boeing 787 aircraft, lifting its fleet from 84 aircraft at the end of the second quarter of 2026 to 102 aircraft by the end of December 2026. AOT expects foreign tourist arrivals in July to September 2026 to total 7.03 million, down 5% from 7.43 million in the same period a year earlier. Although passenger numbers will fall 2% from the same period a year earlier, an increase in the departure passenger service charge will help offset this and support profit. CGSI recommends overweighting the tourism sector and prefers THAI over AOT given its attractive valuation. THAI trades at a 2027 P/E of 6.9 times, 27% below the sector average, while AOT trades at 27.6 times, 48% above the sector average.

Impact on assets 2

Aerospace & Aviation▲ · 1 stocks
Industrials▲ · 1 stocks
Airports Of Thailand PCL
AOT
▲ PositiveCapitalrelevance

CGSI estimates AOT's 2027 net profit to grow 60% and Q3 2026 normal profit up 9% YoY, with higher departure service charge offsetting lower passenger numbers.

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