ASL Securities expects CK Power's core profit in the second quarter of 2026 to grow strongly, driven by higher electricity sales at the Xayaburi hydropower plant as water flow increases. In May, average water flow was over 70 percent higher than the same period last year, despite some planned maintenance shutdowns. Meanwhile, the Bang Pa-in Cogeneration plant is benefiting from a retail Ft rate hike to 0.1623 baht per unit from May to August 2026, helping offset unplanned maintenance early in the quarter and about two weeks in June. Year-on-year, growth slows due to maintenance shutdowns, higher natural gas costs pressuring margins, and lower output at the Nam Ngum 2 hydropower plant as water inflow into the dam in April and May was lower than a year earlier. Results are expected to be announced on August 10. Earnings are entering the high season in the third quarter of 2026, the peak of the year, as there are no maintenance shutdowns, water flow increases, and the situation in the Middle East is beginning to ease positively, supporting lower natural gas prices and reducing margin pressure. The fourth quarter of 2026 is expected to slow quarter-on-quarter due to El Niño risks that may impact from the fourth quarter of 2026 through the second quarter of 2027. Additionally, the company will start recognizing revenue from solar projects with BEM that are gradually reaching commercial operation this year, and is preparing to construct the Pak Thong Chai 2 solar project for revenue recognition in 2027. Financially, CKP was able to issue green bonds worth 5 billion baht at an average cost of only 3.26 percent to invest in the Luang Prabang project, helping keep financial costs low. The analyst recommends buying. On the technical side, the stock has corrected to a low of 2.46 baht and rebounded to close at a high with a bullish candlestick signal. Key resistance is the 5-day SMA at 2.54 baht; if it breaks and holds with rising volume, it is a buy signal, suggesting the downtrend is ending. The next resistance test is at 2.60 baht, with major resistance at the previous double-top high of 2.70 baht.
CK Power Public Company LimitedHigher water flow at Xayaburi and retail Ft rate hike boost electricity sales and margins
