CKP says lower average interest rates than last year to support second-half performance

Goldman Sachs expects several European utility companies to post strong quarterly results, with RWE, Naturgy, Enel, and EDP positioned to potentially exceed their full-year guidance. The bank points to trading activities, flexible generation, and pumping hydro as key drivers, supported by commodity volatility, elevated prices, and solid power demand. Goldman Sachs projects RWE could deliver nine-month net profit of €1.6-1.7 billion, roughly 75% of the full-year Bloomberg consensus estimate of €2.25 billion, with earnings due on November 11. For Naturgy, the bank estimates nine-month EBITDA of €4.3-4.4 billion and net profit of approximately €1.75 billion, suggesting the company could exceed its full-year bottom-line guidance of above €2.1 billion. Enel is projected to post nine-month EBITDA of €17.8 billion and net profit of €5.7-5.8 billion, more than 75% of Goldman Sachs' full-year net profit projection of €7.47 billion, ahead of its November 12 report. For EDP, Goldman Sachs sees clear upside risk to full-year guidance, projecting third-quarter EBITDA at nearly €1.2 billion and nine-month EBITDA at €3.9 billion, with expected asset rotation gains of €200-250 million for the rest of the year making the €5.3 billion full-year EBITDA guidance look conservative; EDP reports on November 6. The bank also anticipates that certain companies may book fourth-quarter restructuring provisions to support future cost savings, which could limit potential earnings beats in 2026 but improve profits in 2027-28.

Apollo Global Management has moved further into energy and industrial assets, with its backed Eagle Creek Renewable Energy partnering with Relevate Power to grow small hydropower assets, and with Apollo completing its acquisition of Nippon Sheet Glass. The Eagle Creek and Relevate Power agreement covers both expansion and day-to-day management of distributed hydro facilities, while the Nippon Sheet Glass deal starts a new management setup and growth phase for the glass producer. Apollo Global Management, a US-based diversified financial group with a market value of about $68.5b, channels capital into credit, private equity, infrastructure and real assets. The firm is also rumored to be reshaping assets including Energos Infrastructure and rolling out Daily Pricing across US$850b of credit. Analysts continue to flag thinner recent profit margins and an uneven dividend record even as the deals support expectations of higher origination volumes.

GPSC appears to be entering a period of earnings recovery, posting a net profit of 1.82 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, up 6% QoQ but down 10% YoY. The main drivers were GHECO-One returning to operation after a planned outage, improved availability at Glow IPP, higher power sales volumes at HHPC, and a recovery in demand from industrial customers. SPP margins, however, remained under pressure as gas costs rose faster than the Ft tariff. First-half 2026 results overall reflected better operating efficiency, with EBITDA margin rising to 25% and net profit up 12% YoY to 3.54 billion baht. The second half of 2026 is expected to continue growing on the high season for hydropower plants in Laos and the peak season for the CFXD wind power plant in Taiwan in the fourth quarter of 2026. The EBITDA Uplift Program has already delivered 571 million baht of benefits in the first half of 2026 and targets around 1 billion baht for the full year 2026. The company aims to expand equity capacity from 7.4 GW to 13.7 GW by 2030, while raising the share of renewables and reducing SPP volatility by increasing gas-linked contracts to more than 70%. It targets winning more than 25% of the capacity up for auction under PDP2026, covering renewable, ESS and conventional power, alongside opportunities from direct PPAs, under which it aims to supply around 2 GW of renewable power to corporate customers by 2030. It currently has demand from data centers under discussion and study amounting to as much as 750 MW, and is studying sites with four partners totalling more than 1,000 MW.

GDEV Management-backed Relevate Power and Eagle Creek Renewable Energy, a hydropower owner and operator backed by Apollo funds, announced a strategic partnership across their portfolios of small hydropower assets. At the partnership's commencement, Eagle Creek will leverage its scale and operations team to manage Relevate's portfolio of run-of-river hydroelectric projects, with the local operators currently employed by Relevate joining Eagle Creek to maintain continuity of operations at each facility. The two companies said they have identified opportunities to combine their strengths in redeveloping and operating hydropower facilities to achieve operational and cost efficiencies, starting with asset management as the foundation for a broader relationship. GDEV and Apollo previously provided financing for Relevate's acquisition of Gravity Renewables in December 2024, and since GDEV's initial investment in 2024, Relevate has received a $4.9 million grant from the Department of Energy to improve the efficiency of hydroelectric facilities. Eagle Creek owns and operates 85 hydroelectric facilities across 18 states, with a portfolio of nearly 700 MW that produces enough electricity to power over 260,000 homes.