Cocoa prices continued to recover on Wednesday, retracing more of Tuesday's sharp declines when both New York and London cocoa fell by more than 4% on reports of exceptional growing conditions in Ivory Coast and Ghana. September ICE NY cocoa rose 10 points to settle up 0.18%, while September ICE London cocoa gained 10 points, up 0.24%. The recovery came despite data showing Ivory Coast farmers shipped 2.11 million metric tons of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year through August 2, up 20% from a year earlier, and Nigerian cocoa exports in June rose 30% year-over-year to 18,922 metric tons. Bullish factors included Ghana's cocoa regulator COCOBOD projecting 2026/27 production could fall to 450,000 to 550,000 metric tons from 750,000 metric tons projected for 2025/26 due to swollen shoot disease, aging farms, and possible El Niño weather, while StoneX cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 25,000 metric tons from 149,000 metric tons in April. Cocoa demand was mixed in the second quarter, with European grindings falling 4.6% to 316,366 metric tons, North American grindings unexpectedly rising 7.7% to 109,659 metric tons, and Asian grindings jumping 25% to 224,646 metric tons.
Ghana's COCOBOD projects lower 2026/27 production and StoneX cuts surplus estimate, tightening supply outlook.
