Cocoa Prices Settle Mixed as StoneX Slashes Global Surplus Forecast

Barchart·29 Jul 2026·Read original

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Cocoa futures settled mixed on Wednesday, with September ICE NY cocoa down 16 points and September ICE London cocoa up 1 point, as prices consolidated above Tuesday's 3.5-week lows. Losses were limited after StoneX cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 25,000 metric tons from a previous forecast of 149,000 metric tons in April, citing risks to the West African crop from an expected El Niño. Pressure on prices came from signs of larger supplies, including a 21% year-over-year increase in Ivory Coast port shipments to 2.11 million metric tons for the current marketing year through July 26, and a 30% rise in Nigerian cocoa exports in June to 18,922 metric tons. ICE cocoa inventories also rose to a 2-year high of 3,375,119 bags on Tuesday. Mixed demand signals emerged as second-quarter European cocoa grindings fell 4.6% to 316,366 metric tons, the lowest for a second quarter in six years, while North American grindings unexpectedly rose 7.7% to 109,659 metric tons and Asian grindings jumped 25% to 224,646 metric tons. Early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast crop show below-average cherelle formation, pointing to a weak main harvest, though a senior manager at Expana noted recent surveys indicate a substantial improvement in pod counts. Transgraph Consulting forecast the global cocoa surplus will shrink to 80,000 metric tons in 2026-2027 from 415,000 metric tons in 2025-2026, mainly due to an expected production decline to 4.87 million metric tons. Further support came from Nigeria's Cocoa Association projecting an 11% drop in 2025/26 production to 305,000 metric tons, and from the US Climate Prediction Center's warning that the emerging El Niño could be one of the strongest in over 75 years, threatening West African yields.

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