Commerce.com Fair Value Cut to $4.40 After Revenue Guidance Lowered

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Summary · why it matters

The fair value estimate for Commerce.com has been reduced from $5.05 to $4.40 following a cut in full-year revenue guidance. Canaccord moved the stock to Hold from Buy and lowered its price target to $3 from $6, noting that the company reduced the midpoint of its full-year revenue guidance by $18 million, pointing to a modest revenue growth decline for the current year. UBS maintains a Neutral rating with a $3.50 price target, citing intense competition, slower monetization, and limited near-term revenue catalysts. The revised fair value reflects a revenue growth assumption lowered from 4.43% to 2.57%, a net profit margin assumption trimmed from 11.83% to 11.45%, a future P/E multiple adjusted from 13.0x to 12.8x, and a discount rate increased from 10.92% to 11.90%.

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