Crude Prices Higher on Continued Hormuz Tensions

Maybank Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited hosted the Maybank Exclusive Meeting with the Minister of Energy, inviting Mr. Ekkanat Promphan, Minister of Energy, to a special stage for institutional investors to outline the direction of Thailand's energy policy under the principles of clean energy, supply security, and fair prices. One of the key mechanisms is the national Power Development Plan, or PDP 2026, which aims to raise the share of renewable energy to approximately 50% in the first 10 years and move higher over the long term, while opening the door to energy storage systems and Smart Grid. Meanwhile, the opening of a direct clean electricity trading market, or Direct PPA, will help the industrial sector, especially Data Centers, access renewable energy directly and serve as an important tool for building competitiveness under increasingly stringent environmental requirements worldwide. On the power generation sector, the Minister stated that Independent Power Producers, or IPP, remain an important component of Thailand's power system for security, while new investment opportunities will gradually shift toward renewable energy, energy storage systems, and infrastructure supporting the transition. As for petroleum exploration and production, the government continues to emphasize increasing domestic energy sources and diversifying supply sources to reduce risks from Spot LNG volatility, including coordinating cooperation with neighboring countries in Myanmar and other areas, and promoting the use of biofuels such as ethanol and biodiesel to reduce dependence on crude oil imports. From these policy directions, Maybank highlights 4 investment themes to watch: renewable energy, Energy Storage and Smart Grid; Direct PPA with Data Center and Digital Infrastructure; Energy Security with E&P and Natural Gas; and finally IPP and existing power plants. Investors should weigh the quality of assets, the duration of power purchase agreements, cash flow, and the ability to adjust portfolios toward new forms of energy business.

Shell PLC raised its third-quarter integrated gas production forecast to 740,000 to 780,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up from its previous guidance of 570,000 to 630,000 boepd. The British energy major produced 631,000 boepd in the second quarter, partly reflecting the acquisition of ARC Resources. Shell also forecast an indicative refining margin of $42 a barrel for the quarter, up sharply from $24 a barrel in the second quarter, while its indicative chemicals margin is expected to fall to $208 a tonne from $270 a tonne. The company warned that weaker chemicals margins and higher cash outflows could weigh on its results. Shell is due to report third-quarter results on Oct. 29.

Shell said Wednesday it expects about $300M in third-quarter upstream exploration well write-offs, alongside higher integrated gas production and refining margins. Upstream production is forecast at 1.735 million to 1.835 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, while integrated gas production is expected to rise to 740,000-780,000 boe/d and LNG liquefaction volumes are forecast at 7.2-7.6 million tonnes. In the second quarter, the European oil and gas major produced 631,000 boed, compared with over 900,000 boed before the US and Israel started a war on Iran in February. Shell's indicative refining margin is expected to rise to $42 a barrel in Q3'26 from $24 a barrel in Q2'26, with Trading & Optimisation expected to remain in line with the previous quarter. The update follows CEO Wael Sawan's Tuesday remark that oil flows from the Middle East have rebounded to roughly 80% of pre-war volumes, and last month's agreement to farm into two BP offshore exploration projects, taking a 30% interest in BP's Conifer prospect in the U.S. Gulf and a 50% stake in the Tupinamba block in Brazil's Santos Basin, with financial terms not disclosed.

Gulf Development Public Company Limited, or GULF, announced the signing of a new LNG purchase and sale agreement with ADNOC to supply liquefied natural gas, strengthening GULF's LNG portfolio. Under the deal, ADNOC will deliver a total of nearly 2 million tonnes of LNG to GULF, with deliveries beginning in 2027. The agreement builds on cooperation between ADNOC and GULF under a deal signed in 2025 and aligns with ADNOC's strategy of expanding into LNG markets in Asia. Sarath Ratanavadi, Chief Executive Officer of GULF, said the agreement supports Gulf Resources' goal of building a diversified and reliable LNG portfolio as the core of its trading business while opening up further trading opportunities in Asian markets. Nasser Al Muhairi, Acting Chief Executive Officer of the Downstream, Marketing and Trading business at ADNOC Group, said the deal builds on the first agreement signed with GULF and underscores ADNOC's commitment to energy security for partners in Asia.