Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk says the AI boom is visible in epic spending sprees and sky-high valuations but not in the most applicable productivity statistics, according to a blog post published Monday. Sløk's analysis of productivity growth over time shows the San Francisco Fed's total factor productivity index, which measures economic output from labor and capital, is currently sitting slightly below zero with no sign of acceleration since the AI capex cycle began. That stands in contrast to the output-per-hour measure AI backers frequently cite, which is running above the post-2005 average by 2.5 percent, a gain Sløk attributes to capital deepening, or giving workers better equipment, rather than a technology shock from the AI transformation. Sløk noted that a subzero TFP reading is not in itself unusual, writing that electricity and IT both took a decade or more to show up in the larger economic picture, so investors should remain patient. As Sløk put it, the productivity payoff from AI remains a forecast rather than an observation.
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