Dao maintains Buy on SAV with 14.50 baht target, expects 3Q26 profit to recover to 130-140 million baht

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Summary · why it matters

Dao Securities said SAV retains a positive view on its operating performance in the third and fourth quarters of 2026, which should return to growth compared with both the prior year and the previous quarter, driven by a recovering trend in flight numbers. In July 2026, flights returned to 8% growth year on year, and in August 2026 growth is expected to accelerate to 20% year on year, while September 2026 should continue to grow. As a result, third-quarter 2026 flight numbers are estimated to grow more than 10% both year on year and quarter on quarter, an improvement from the second quarter of 2026, when flight numbers fell 2% year on year and 12% quarter on quarter. Supporting factors include a recovery in overflight traffic, with particularly notable increases in flights from Vietnam, China and Singapore, and fourth-quarter 2026 flight numbers are expected to rise further during the high season. The brokerage maintained its 2026 profit forecast at 547 million baht, flat year on year, with upside potential, as first-half profit accounted for 48% of the full year. For third-quarter 2026, preliminary estimates put profit improving to 130-140 million baht, better both year on year and quarter on quarter, compared with 128 million baht in the third quarter of 2025 and 122 million baht in the second quarter of 2026. Fourth-quarter 2026 profit is expected to improve further and mark the year's high. Dao maintained its Buy recommendation with a target price of 14.50 baht, based on a DCF with a WACC of 9.5% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%. It assesses that second-quarter 2026 profit marked the bottom and that growth will accelerate in the third and fourth quarters of 2026 and in 2027. Catalysts remain from project tenders by AOT and Aerothai, with a combined project value of no less than 2.45 billion baht, which should add upside to 2027 profit, while dividend yield remains high at around 8.5% per year.

Impact on assets 2

Industrials▲ · 2 stocks
Airports Of Thailand PCL
AOT
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

AOT project tenders cited as a catalyst, with recovering flight numbers boosting airport traffic and tender activity.

Off-coverage companies 1

Aeronautical Radio of Thailand (AEROTHAI)Private▲ Positive
Demandrelevance

Aerothai project tenders cited as a catalyst alongside recovering overflight traffic.

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