Foreign tourist arrivals to Thailand rebound 5.7%, favouring CENTEL and AOT over the sector

HoonVision··THMYJP·Read original
3▲3 ▼0Impact / 5
Summary · why it matters

Foreign tourists arriving in Thailand during 13–19 September 2026 totalled 464,200, beginning a seasonal recovery of 5.7% from the previous week ahead of the high season. Short-haul arrivals came to 324,816, up 8.6% week on week, while long-haul arrivals were 139,384, down 0.4% week on week. The recovery was led by Malaysian tourists at 69,255, up 29.1% on Malaysia Day, and Japanese tourists at 30,494, up 55.4% ahead of Silver Week, while Chinese tourists numbered 66,151, up 1.2%, and Russian tourists 19,531, up 7.6%. On forward bookings for Golden Week, Trip.com signalled positive momentum after Chinese tourists' flight bookings to Phuket rose 78% from a year earlier, supported by the long holiday combining the Mid-Autumn Festival and Golden Week, which is likely to see Chinese tourists start travelling from 25 September. The research team at Asia Plus Securities views the Phuket flight bookings as a positive signal for AOT's international passenger numbers, particularly at Phuket airport, which accounts for about 12% of AOT's revenue. Among hotel groups with a high share of revenue from Phuket, CENTEL leads with about 15% of hotel revenue, followed by ERW at about 9% of hotel revenue, while MINT's main revenue share lies in the EU. The research team continues to emphasise investment in Thai tourism, favouring CENTEL followed by AOT, whose earnings momentum in 2027 looks stronger than the sector's. ERW is an event trade and THAI is a tactical buy tracking the direction of Brent crude, after the share price fell 14% this year against a 27% rise in the SET, which the team sees as having largely priced in the negatives. It estimates that AOT's normal profit, as well as that of Thai hotel groups, will expand in the October-to-December period both quarter on quarter and year on year, continuing into the January-to-March 2027 period as the peak season arrives along with major events during Chinese New Year.

Impact on assets 7

Consumer Discretionary▲ · 4 stocks
Industrials▲ · 1 stocks
Airports Of Thailand PCL
AOT
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Phuket flight bookings up 78% y/y signal stronger international passenger numbers at AOT's Phuket airport, ~12% of revenue.

Aerospace & Aviation▲ · 1 stocks
Financials▲ · 1 stocks
© 2026 MarketIVNews