Pie Securities expects GFPT to post a net profit of 550 million baht in the second quarter of 2026, down 14 percent from a year earlier but up 6 percent from the previous quarter, better than its earlier estimate. The improvement reflects limited impact from rising costs so far, together with the onset of the high season for exports, which supports a still-healthy gross margin of 16 percent. Revenue is forecast at 4.59 billion baht, down 6 percent year-on-year, in line with export volume of 8,000 tonnes, down from 8,500 tonnes in the second quarter of 2025 after China began banning chicken exports from Thailand, but up from 7,500 tonnes in the first quarter of 2026 as the high season gets underway. Gross margin is projected at 16.4 percent, down from 16.7 percent in the second quarter of 2025 after selling prices to Japan declined, but improving from 14.6 percent in the first quarter of 2026 thanks to higher export volumes. Meanwhile, the impact of rising costs is still limited because old inventory remains. Share of profit from investments in associates is estimated at 132 million baht, down 33 percent year-on-year and 10 percent quarter-on-quarter, dragged down by GFN after domestic chicken carcass prices are expected to fall to just 11 to 12 baht per kilogramme, from 14.5 baht per kilogramme in the second quarter of 2025 and 13.5 baht per kilogramme in the first quarter of 2026. First-half 2026 net profit accounts for 54 percent of the full-year profit the research team forecasts at 1.97 billion baht. However, given the risk of a greater cost impact becoming more visible in the third quarter of 2026, the research team is keeping its full-year profit estimate unchanged. The team maintains a buy recommendation for speculative trading based on domestic chicken prices, with a fair value of 12.60 baht.
GFPT Public Company LimitedQ2 profit expected to beat forecast due to high season for exports and limited cost impact.
GFN's profit share dragged down by falling domestic chicken carcass prices.