Globlex says oil prices will stay high for another 6 months, recommends refinery plays PTT, TOP, SPRC, BCP

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Summary · why it matters

Suwat Sinsadok, Managing Director of Globlex Securities, told "Than Hoon" that oil prices are likely to remain elevated for at least another six months, with a base-case floor of 70 to 80 dollars per barrel and a chance of swinging up to 80 to 90 dollars per barrel. He noted that commercial and strategic petroleum reserves in many countries around the world have fallen to very low levels. He also pointed out that a key window of roughly one to two months could see the opposing sides return to the negotiating table, under pressure from the U.S. general election and the start of winter. Even if talks conclude, repairing damaged production facilities in Russia and the Middle East will take time, meaning supply will not recover quickly over the next six months. On investment strategy, he still favors the energy and refinery groups, viewing the government's move to skim 4 baht per liter from refining margins as a negative but tolerable factor, because global refining margins, or GRM, remain above 10 dollars per barrel and the diesel crack spread is around 50 dollars per barrel. PTT is the top pick, while TOP is given a fundamental target price of 88 baht, BCP just over 75 baht, and SPRC 15.50 baht. For petrochemicals, he recommends focusing on stocks that also have refineries, seeing IRPC and PTTGC as beneficiaries, followed by IVL.

Impact on assets 8

Energy Transition & Power Demand▲ · 3 stocks
PTT Public Company Limited
PTT
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Globlex names PTT as its top pick in the energy and refinery groups, citing oil prices staying high for another six months.

Energy▲ · 2 stocks
Star Petroleum Refining Co Ltd
SPRC
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Globlex recommends SPRC as a refinery play, citing elevated oil prices and strong global refining margins/diesel crack spreads.

IRPC Public Company Limited
IRPC
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Globlex names IRPC as a beneficiary in petrochemicals, favoring stocks that also have refineries amid high GRM and diesel crack spreads.

Materials▲ · 1 stocks
Critical Materials & Supply Chain▲ · 1 stocks
Indorama Ventures PCL
IVL
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Globlex lists IVL as a petrochemical beneficiary, though only as a follow-on pick after IRPC and PTTGC.

Financials▲ · 1 stocks
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