HPE's $700 Million AI Networking Backlog Tests Supply Chain

Ciena Corp. rebounded as much as 14.3 percent in intraday trading on Tuesday to $445.36 apiece, helped by peer Marvell Technology's growth outlook for the optical interconnects sector. At its recent Investor Day, Marvell said it expects the industry to grow by 60 to 70 percent to about $65 billion through 2030, with switching and storage alone reaching $85 billion, or a compounded annual growth rate of 40 percent. Those figures were markedly higher than Ciena's own 30 percent growth outlook for its business by 2029. Bernstein initiated coverage with an outperform rating and a $440 price target, acknowledging near-term supply constraints but calling the stock undervalued, while Evercore maintained an outperform rating and a $550 price target, citing optimism that Ciena can achieve more than $25 in earnings per share. Hedge fund holders in Ciena rose to 81 in the second quarter from 73 in the first, with combined holdings up 2 percent to $3.997 billion from $3.913 billion quarter-on-quarter.

Marvell Technology is expanding its partnership with Nvidia across advanced networking, silicon photonics and optical interconnect technologies, with Nvidia investing $2 billion in Marvell as part of the March 2026 agreement. The collaboration began in 2025 to give hyperscalers more flexibility in building custom AI computing infrastructure, and was expanded in 2026 to connect Marvell to Nvidia's AI factory and AI-RAN ecosystems through NVLink Fusion. Under the expanded arrangement, Marvell will supply custom XPUs and NVLink Fusion-compatible scale-up networking, while Nvidia provides Vera CPUs, ConnectX NICs, BlueField DPUs, NVLink interconnects, Spectrum-X switches and rack-scale AI compute. Marvell also worked with Microsoft and Utimaco to launch Azure Payment HSM v2, a cloud-native payment security platform built on Marvell's LiquidSecurity hardware security modules, with Utimaco contributing Atalla Payments Module software and Microsoft providing Azure. Marvell competes with Astera Labs and Broadcom in networking, and its shares have gained 239.5% year to date, trading at a price-to-sales multiple of 14.78X versus the Zacks Electronics - Semiconductors industry's 5.15X, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2027 earnings implies year-over-year growth of 48.2%.

Arista Networks raised its 2026 revenue guidance to US$12.60 billion, including at least US$3.50 billion from AI-related business, after reporting second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of US$3.00 billion, a 37.7% year-over-year increase. The higher outlook underscores how AI-driven cloud networking has become a central revenue pillar for the company, shaping its growth mix across hyperscale and enterprise customers. Arista was also added to the S&P 100 in September 2026, a move that reflects its growing weight in large-cap U.S. equity indices just as management ties more of its outlook to AI-related revenue. The company's longer-range narrative projects US$21.4 billion in revenue and US$8.2 billion in earnings by 2029, requiring 26.6% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about US$4.2 billion from US$4.0 billion today. Some of the lowest-ranked analysts had already assumed about US$18.6 billion of 2029 revenue and US$6.9 billion of earnings before this guidance, illustrating how differently Arista's AI exposure and long-term supply commitments can be read.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise raised its fiscal 2027 networking revenue growth forecast to between high-teens and low-20s percent, up from the 14% to 17% projection it gave earlier in September, and secured a $1.2 billion order from cloud infrastructure provider Vultr for AMD-based artificial intelligence server racks paired with Juniper networking switches. The company also lifted its annual cost-synergy target from the Juniper Networks acquisition to $800 million by the end of fiscal 2028, up from at least $600 million, and projected Data Center Networking revenue to grow at a low-to-high 50s percent compound annual rate through fiscal 2029. Following the networking investor day presentation, Citigroup raised its price target on the stock to $92 from $76 while keeping a Buy rating, citing confidence in durable demand and expanding AI infrastructure orders. A cooler-than-expected U.S. jobs report added secondary momentum, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting that employers added 29,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in September, trailing the 84,000 consensus estimate from economists polled by Dow Jones. HPE shares jumped 7.8% in the afternoon session and are up 189% since the beginning of the year, reaching a new 52-week high of $69.77 per share.