Yuantai Securities maintains a positive outlook on Ichitan Group's (ICHI) growth trend in the second half of the year, expecting normal profit in Q3 2026 to be 345-375 million baht, growing quarter-on-quarter and flat to slightly up year-on-year, supported by the ready-to-drink green tea market returning to growth of 3.6% and the acceleration of new product launches, especially new flavors of alkaline water and products co-branded with Kumamon. Meanwhile, the OEM business continues to decline due to production capacity constraints. However, key partner Honshin will start operating its factory in November 2026 to produce Ichitan and Shizuoka brand products, giving the company sufficient capacity for alkaline water and allowing it to resume production for IF again. This could lead normal profit to hit the year's peak in Q4 2026, with potential upside to estimates if contracts with two new customers in the alkaline water segment are signed within the year. The company also plans CSR spending of about 28 million baht per quarter in the second half, which can be double-deducted for tax purposes. Meanwhile, another partner, Precision, is expected to start production in Q3 2027, with both partners supporting growth for 2-3 years without major investment. Yuantai Securities maintains its normal profit estimates for 2026-2027 at 1,209 million baht and 1,326 million baht, respectively, and maintains a fair price at end-2027 of 16.90 baht, while upgrading its recommendation to "Buy" from "TRADING".
Ichitan Group Public Company LimitedYuantai Securities upgraded ICHI to Buy and set a 16.90 baht fair price, expecting Q4 2026 peak profit on new product launches and partner capacity.
