IRPC expects a bright second-half performance, supported by refining margins and crack spreads holding at high levels, with crude oil prices estimated to move in a range of 80 to 90 dollars per barrel, helping EBITDA improve. Miss Thosaeng Chaiprawat, Senior Vice President of Accounting and Finance, said during an earnings call that refining margins in the first half were high, especially in the second quarter of 2026 at 15 dollars per barrel, and the second half is still expected to be affected by unrest in the Middle East that is hitting global refinery supply. If the situation drags on, refining margins will remain high and close to the second quarter of 2026, while crude premiums stand at 17 dollars per barrel and crack spreads are very high, continuing to support the company's gross refining margin. Crude oil prices are expected to stay elevated at around 80 to 90 dollars per barrel, and if the situation eases they could fall to 70 to 80 dollars per barrel. The company manages risk by keeping oil inventories as low as possible and using forward contracts. Capital expenditure for 2026 to 2028 is about 3 billion baht per year, mostly for refinery improvements, with no large investment plans beyond the 4R+ strategic plan. The company will reduce the share of revenue from volatile businesses by expanding into high-value products such as medical hub, IT, materials and construction, while refining and petrochemicals remain core businesses. On industrial estate plans, the company still has land remaining in its estate in Rayong province and is studying a data center business. At the same time, the company is considering an interim dividend and seeking board approval, with a policy to pay no less than 25 percent of annual net profit.
IRPC Public Company LimitedHigh refining margins and crack spreads due to Middle East unrest hitting global refinery supply support EBITDA.
Middle East unrest is expected to keep crude oil prices elevated at 80-90 dollars per barrel.
