J.P. Morgan is forecasting 12% annual EPS growth for Greek banks between 2025 and 2028, with mid-teens returns on tangible equity, as the sector shifts from post-crisis balance-sheet repair to growth, earnings and shareholder returns. Non-performing exposure ratios have fallen to around 2%-3% from above 50% during Greece's financial crisis, return on assets has reached 1.3% versus 0.6% across the euro area, and shareholder distributions resumed from 2023 earnings after a 15-year pause. Deposits account for roughly 80% of Greek banks' liabilities, compared with 52% across the euro area, the system's loan-to-deposit ratio is about 60%, and around 80% of deposits sit in current and savings accounts. J.P. Morgan expects performing loans to grow 8%-10% annually, driven by corporate investment, EU Recovery and Resilience Facility financing and a gradual recovery in mortgages, with fee growth, acquisitions and capital deployment adding further earnings growth. Greek equities are entering the Euro STOXX and STOXX Europe 600 universes at the September rebalance, with the four systemic banks among the main additions and about $1 billion of associated passive inflows expected, while Greece remains in MSCI's emerging-market index until May 2027. Greek banks have gained 41% this year, compared with 21% for the SX7E, and still trade at about 9 times estimated 2028 earnings and roughly a 10% discount to comparable Southern European and Central and Eastern European banks; J.P. Morgan sees Eurobank and Piraeus as offering a particularly attractive combination of growth, returns and valuation.
JPMorgan Chase & Co
NVIDIA Corporation
