JetBlue Raises Q3 RASM Outlook to 17%-20% as Analysts Cut Targets

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JetBlue Airways raised its third-quarter revenue per available seat mile growth outlook to 17% to 20%, up from 12.5% to 16.5%, after demand held up even as fares increased. The airline also said its commercial actions helped it recapture nearly 50% of higher fuel costs in the second quarter, ahead of its prior 30% to 40% target, while RASM rose 10.9% year-over-year and Fort Lauderdale RASM jumped 11% despite capacity growth of nearly 40%. Costs are rising too: JetBlue now expects third-quarter nonfuel unit costs to climb 6% to 8%, versus its previous 2.5% to 4.5% forecast, and fuel to cost $3.96 per gallon instead of $3.49, prompting TD Cowen to cut its target to $4 from $5, Barclays to lower its target to $5 from $7, Goldman Sachs analyst Catherine O'Brien to reduce hers to $4 from $4.50, and UBS to trim its target to $4 from $5. July and August cancellations, severe U.S. airport weather days up 40% from the prior three-summer average, and Northeast air-traffic-control cancellations that nearly doubled forced JetBlue to cut third-quarter capacity guidance to 1.5% to 3.5% from 3% to 6%. Management still expects JetForward to generate at least $310 million of incremental EBIT in 2026, building toward roughly $1.2 billion of annual incremental EBIT and at least $1 of EPS by 2028, and sees second-half operating margins improving by roughly 3.5 points year-over-year with sustained operating profitability targeted for 2027.

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JetBlue Airways Corp
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Rising fuel costs ($3.96/gal vs $3.49) and nonfuel unit costs (6%-8%) plus weather/ATC cancellations forced capacity cuts.