Kasikorn Securities maintains Buy on VRANDA, raises target to 6 baht on strong hotel business
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Kasikorn Securities maintains its Buy rating on VRANDA and raises its target price to 6.00 baht from 5.88 baht, split into 5.41 baht per share for the hotel business and 0.59 baht per share for the residential business, after revising up its normal profit forecasts for 2026-2028 by 21%, 5% and 130% respectively. The research team expects hotel RevPAR to grow 18.8% YoY in 2026, supported by ADR rising 5.5% YoY to 5,088 baht and occupancy rising to 70.0% from 62.1% in 2025, and expects a further 6% growth in 2027. Third-quarter 2026 operating results remain strong, with July RevPAR at 3,239 baht, up 16% YoY, and August at 3,346 baht, up 11% YoY. For the residential business, revenue in 2026 is expected to recover to 426 million baht from 23 million baht in 2025 after transfers of ownership begin at the Veranda Villas & Suites Phuket project in the second half of 2026. Key risks include volatile jet fuel prices, lower-than-expected inbound tourists, intense competition, and delays in residential ownership transfers.