KGI flags US diesel export ban risk, boosting five Thai refinery stocks

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KGI Securities said there is a growing risk that the United States will ban diesel exports, after US retail diesel prices surged past US$6.50 per gallon on supply disruptions caused by Middle East tensions and the Russia-Ukraine war. US officials indicated the government is considering measures to restrict diesel exports, though the format remains uncertain, ranging from a full export ban and partial caps to voluntary export reductions. Data from BCA Research dated September 24 showed US diesel exports hit a record 1.7 million barrels per day in August 2026, up from 1.1 million barrels per day in February 2026, and estimated that a full US export ban, combined with supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz crisis and the Russia-Ukraine war, would affect about 47% of global diesel exports. The US is the world's largest diesel exporter, accounting for roughly 16% of global diesel exports, with most shipments going to Europe and South America. The research team views this possibility as a positive factor for sentiment on Thai refinery stocks, namely SPRC, TOP, BCP, IRPC and PTTGC.

Impact on assets 6

Energy Transition & Power Demand▲ · 2 stocks
Energy▲ · 2 stocks
IRPC Public Company Limited
IRPC
▲ PositiveSupplyrelevance

Potential US diesel export ban would reduce global diesel supply, a positive sentiment factor for Thai refiner IRPC.

Materials▲ · 1 stocks
Others▲ · 1 stocks
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