KGI raises TIDLOR's 2026 profit forecast by 6%

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KGI Securities Thailand has raised its 2026 profit forecast for Ngern Tid Lor Holdings Public Company Limited, or TIDLOR, by 6%, lowering its credit cost assumption to 2.5% from 2.75%. It also raised its 12-month target price to 19.20 baht and upgraded its recommendation to Hold from Sell. The research team expects second-quarter 2026 profit at 1.4 billion baht, down 13% quarter-on-quarter but up 8% year-on-year. The quarterly decline was due to a 10-basis-point drop in net interest margin and higher provisioning expenses at 2.4%, up from an unusually low 1.7% in the first quarter of 2026. The year-on-year increase came from a 20-basis-point decline in provisioning expenses. TIDLOR's outlook remains pressured by a weak lower-tier economy, which limits loan growth and keeps new NPL formation elevated.

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