Krungsri keeps Buy on ADVANC with 430 baht target, expects Q3 2026 profit of 13,426 million baht

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Krungsri Securities maintains a "Buy" rating on Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited, or ADVANC, with a target price of 430 baht based on the DCF method. Against the latest closing price of 349 baht, that implies 23% upside. It expects net profit for the third quarter of 2026 at 13,426 million baht, up 11.5% year on year but down 2.1% quarter on quarter. The sequential slowdown stems from higher network-related costs and a larger share of losses recognized from the Virtual Banking business. Core revenue excluding IC is expected at 45,600 million baht, up 4.8% year on year and 0.5% quarter on quarter, driven by the mobile and fixed broadband businesses. Total revenue is expected at 57,739 million baht, up 6.2% year on year and 2.2% quarter on quarter. EBITDA is expected at 32,829 million baht, up 4.5% year on year but down 0.3% quarter on quarter. On the subscriber base, total mobile users are expected at 47.247 million numbers, up 2.1% year on year and 0.3% quarter on quarter, split into 14.022 million postpaid and 33.225 million prepaid numbers. Blended ARPU is 242 baht per month, up 3.5% year on year and 0.9% quarter on quarter. Fixed broadband customers stand at 5.386 million, up 3.5% year on year and 0.7% quarter on quarter. Krungsri also maintains its 2026 profit forecast at 53,325 million baht, growing 15.9% year on year. If third-quarter 2026 results come in as expected, they would represent 76% of the full-year profit forecast, and profit momentum is expected to reaccelerate in the fourth quarter of 2026 on seasonal tourism and high levels of consumer spending. It also sees upside risk to its profit forecast of about 3% to 4% and expects a dividend yield of 4.9% for 2026. For 2026, it forecasts revenue of 236,447 million baht, EBITDA of 126,968 million baht, and net profit of 53,325 million baht.

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