Krungsri Securities maintains buy rating on BTS, cuts target price to 3.57 baht

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Summary · why it matters

Krungsri Securities maintains a buy recommendation on BTS but has lowered its 2027 target price under the sum-of-the-parts method to 3.57 baht from 4.00 baht, after trimming its 2027-2028 operating forecasts due to higher selling and administrative expenses. It now expects BTS to post a net loss of 2.9 billion baht in 2027 and 1.84 billion baht in 2028, compared with previous forecasts of losses of 2 billion baht and 853 million baht respectively. The main reason is that selling and administrative expenses in the first quarter of 2027 rose 31 percent year on year to 1.9 billion baht, driven by marketing expenses at VGI, costs from transferring the European hotel business back to RABBIT, and costs from closing the Verso international school. Meanwhile, the government policy to cut electric train fares to 17 to 45 baht took effect on 1 January 2027. BTS has confirmed it will join the programme, but still faces limitations from incomplete EMV system coverage and the issue of sharing excess passenger revenue. It expects to take about one and a half years to install the EMV system. BTS also believes the Pink Line will benefit more from the fare policy than the Yellow Line, expecting Pink Line ridership to rise 15 to 20 percent from the current 80,000 trips per day, while the Yellow Line carries 30,000 to 40,000 trips per day. It has also pushed back the break-even point from 2033 to 2038. The new target price implies upside of about 72 percent from the closing price of 2.08 baht.

Impact on assets 3

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