Krungsri Securities assesses that CBG's business trend will recover in the second half of 2026, with third-quarter 2026 revenue expected to grow from a base affected by Cambodia and seasonality that makes the second half stronger than the first. Thailand's energy drink segment, which accounts for 35% of revenue, is still growing 8-10% per year. The alcohol distribution segment, which accounts for 46% of revenue, is growing 25% per year. Myanmar business, which accounts for 9% of revenue, is expected to grow 70-80% per year. Meanwhile, branded product costs are temporarily affected by high-cost inventory lots during the war period, causing gross margin to decline 1-2% from the previous quarter. The company has begun contract manufacturing packaging for the LOVEZA brand, producing 1 million cans in the first quarter of 2026 and 5 million cans in the second quarter, with third and fourth quarter 2026 output expected to rise to 13 million and 20-25 million cans respectively. The target for 2027 is about 100 million cans, representing revenue of about 400 million baht or 1.5% of total revenue. The company plans to open a third furnace to produce glass bottles, investing 1.5 billion baht through internal cash flow, to be completed in the fourth quarter of 2027, and plans to produce a 12-baht bottle as a new product. It also plans to downsize its UK business, setting a 2026 loss target of about 90 million baht, falling to 23 million baht in 2027. Krungsri estimates 2026 profit at 2.8-3.0 billion baht, flat to up 6% per year, and gives an initial speculative target of 60-65 baht based on 2027 profit growth of 10% per year and a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 times.
Carabao Group Public Company LimitedRecovery in second half, strong growth in energy drink, alcohol, and Myanmar segments, plus new contract manufacturing for LOVEZA.
