Summary · why it matters
Kasikorn Securities expects the Thai stock index to trade in a range of 1580-1620 points this week, anticipating the market will move sideways ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting in the middle of the week, after US inflation data, the PPI index, came in higher than expected, combined with the Middle East situation that has driven global crude oil prices up notably, raising the risk that the Fed may hike rates this round. The brokerage also advises investors to exercise more caution, waiting to accumulate when the market weakens or when there is clarity from the Fed meeting. For speculative traders, it recommends focusing on global play groups such as refineries, shipping, and packaging, while low-risk investors should focus on groups that remain laggards but have interesting earnings prospects, such as the hospital group. For the week's top picks, they are TOP and BDMS. TOP is given a base price of 75.20 baht with a buy recommendation maintained, driven by refining margins in the third quarter of 2026 that are expected to remain supported by refinery disruptions in Russia, helping offset seasonal factors, along with an upward revision of 2026 and 2027 profits by 62 percent and 39 percent year on year, respectively, in line with the adjustment of refining margin assumptions in 2026 and 2027 to 20.9 and 10.3 dollars, from previous estimates of 15.0 and 8.3 dollars, respectively. Its current valuation trades at a PBV of 0.6 times. BDMS is given a base price of 21.30 baht, with a mid-2027 target price estimated at 21.30 baht. It views that if the share price weakens further, it would be an opportunity to accumulate, as the third-quarter 2026 outlook is strong with a chance to hit a new record high, driven by August revenue growth accelerating to 10 percent, supporting both Thai and foreign patients, as well as the recovery of the Middle East market. Margins are likely to improve in the second half of 2026 from higher utilization rates, revenue growth, and cost control, but in the long term, investors must monitor the slowdown in Thai patients after the influenza base effect fades.
Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company Limited
Thai Oil Public Company Limited