Liquor stocks rally after first-half profit warnings, some shares back to 2013 levels

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3▲5 ▼0Impact / 5
Summary · why it matters

On the evening of July 14, several A-share listed liquor companies disclosed their first-half earnings forecasts. The sector's decline widened in the second quarter, with three distillers warning of losses. Yet on July 15, the liquor sector bucked the trend and surged after the market opened. By midday, Golden Seed Winery hit its daily limit up, Gujing Distillery rose 8.72 percent, and Shunxin Agriculture and Shanxi Xinghuacun Fenjiu both gained over 6 percent. Despite the short-term share price rebound, after three years of deep industry adjustment, some stocks have fallen back to the starting point of the previous upcycle. Shunxin Agriculture traded at 10.87 yuan at midday, a level last seen in June 2013. Yanghe Brewery stood at 39.91 yuan, back to around December 2013. Shares of Shede Spirits, Gujing Distillery, Luzhou Laojiao and others have also retreated to ranges seen around 2019 to 2020. Earlier, multiple institutions published research reports bullish on the liquor sector bottoming out, noting that distillers' operating strategies have shifted this year. Short- to medium-term tactics broadly focus on destocking, stabilizing price levels, boosting sales, and strengthening direct-to-consumer engagement. The trend of proactive supply-side destocking and balance-sheet cleanup continues. Second-quarter results are expected to show a mixed picture of declines and growth. As the peak consumption season arrives in the second half, sales momentum is likely to recover further. Independent liquor commentator Xiao Zhuqing argues that the current earnings decline is the result of three long-term structural contradictions resonating across consumption, usage scenarios, and distribution channels, rather than a short-term market fluctuation. In particular, the contraction in government and corporate consumption is a systemic, long-term variable. Restoring consumer confidence requires a supportive macro cycle. The trillion-yuan inventory overhang in distribution channels will need at least one to two years to slowly clear.

Impact on assets 7

Others▲ · 7 stocks
Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co Ltd
000860
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Liquor sector rally on July 15, with Shunxin Agriculture gaining over 6%, driven by expectations of demand recovery in second-half peak season.

Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd
000568
± MixedDemandrelevance

Stock price mentioned as having retreated to 2019-2020 levels; sector rally but no specific company news.

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