Maybank Keeps Buy on BCP with 65 Baht Target, Expects 2H2026 Dividend Above 3 Baht

thunhoon.com··TH·Read original
3▲2 ▼1Impact / 5
Summary · why it matters

Maybank Securities (Thailand) has maintained its buy recommendation on BCP shares with a 12-month target price of 65 baht, versus the current share price of 54.25 baht, implying 23% upside. The brokerage views refining margins as still strong and notes the company's growth plan focuses on the exploration and production, or E&P, business. BCP management said shareholder returns remain a key priority, with the possibility that dividend per share, or DPS, in the second half of 2026 will exceed 3 baht per share under a minimum payout policy of 30%, and the company is considering extending its share buyback program while reaffirming its commitment to a three-year long-term buyback plan. Under its five-year growth plan, BCP sees three main channels, with the E&P business, both organic and inorganic, as the primary driver, and has allocated 70% of initial capital expenditure to that business. Next is expanding refinery capacity, particularly at the Sriracha refinery, while it may consider raising sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, output to 1.5 million liters per day from 1 million liters per day currently. On allegations against BCPG over its purchase of oil depot assets in 2023, management confirmed it followed proper procedures, including third-party valuation, and believes BCP shares held by Alpha Chartered Energy, or ACE, may be frozen for three to five years because legal proceedings brought by the government against ACE are still ongoing. In Maybank's estimates, BCP's 2026 revenue is 534.647 billion baht, EBITDA 74.606 billion baht, and core profit 28.347 billion baht, up 176.8% from the previous year. It forecasts core profit of 17.931 billion baht in 2027 and 13.139 billion baht in 2028, while projecting DPS of 5.10 baht in 2026 and a dividend yield of 9.4%.

Impact on assets 4

Energy Transition & Power Demand± Mixed · 3 stocks
BCPG Public Company Limited
BCPG
▼ NegativeRegulationrelevance

Allegations over BCPG's 2023 oil depot asset purchase and ongoing government legal proceedings against ACE

Financials▲ · 1 stocks

Off-coverage companies 1

Alpha Chartered EnergyPrivate▼ Negative
Regulationrelevance

Government legal proceedings against ACE may freeze its BCP shares for three to five years

© 2026 MarketIVNews