Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens warns that SpaceX shares are significantly overvalued, estimating the company's fair value at $63 per share, roughly 70% below its midday trading price on June 16, 2026. The firm's probability-weighted discounted cash flow models, which gave SpaceX the benefit of the doubt in two of three scenarios, still point to a steep downside. Owens noted that while the stock could rise further in the near term due to a small float and strong AI infrastructure demand, the months ahead may be treacherous once early investors and employees are allowed to sell. Morningstar's Mark Hulbert also cautioned that historically, stocks with the largest market caps have underperformed the S&P 500. Even the most bullish analyst price target of $190 from Oppenheimer sits 12% below the current share price, underscoring the risk that investors are pricing in perfection.
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