Novo Nordisk Rated Zacks Rank #3 as Earnings Estimates Rise

Novo Nordisk is pushing to extract greater value from semaglutide by expanding its use beyond traditional diabetes, obesity and cardiovascular indications, even as it faces intense competition from Eli Lilly across cardiometabolic care. Semaglutide-based GLP-1 products, including Ozempic and Rybelsus for type II diabetes and Wegovy for obesity, accounted for roughly 75.5% of Novo's adjusted first-half 2026 sales, leaving the company highly exposed to changes in competition, pricing and market share. The clearest example of the expansion came with Wegovy's 2025 U.S. approval for noncirrhotic metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis in adults with moderate-to-advanced liver fibrosis, and in March 2026 the European Commission granted conditional authorization to Kayshild, or semaglutide, for adults with noncirrhotic MASH and F2-F3 liver fibrosis. Novo is also building evidence in knee osteoarthritis, where the STEP 9 study showed significant improvements in pain and physical function among adults with obesity, and in post-hoc analyses of obstructive sleep apnea and asthma-related outcomes, though these remain opportunities rather than established indications. The company's Alzheimer's disease program for semaglutide was discontinued after the phase III EVOKE and EVOKE+ studies failed to meet their primary endpoints. Eli Lilly is pursuing a similarly broad strategy, with Mounjaro approved in the United States to reduce major cardiovascular events in adults with T2D at high cardiovascular risk, Zepbound approved for adults with obesity and moderate-to-severe OSA, the oral GLP-1 pill Foundayo being studied across multiple conditions, and retatrutide in late-stage studies. In MASH, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals' Rezdiffra generated $675.6 million in first-half 2026 sales, up 93% year over year, while Altimmune's pemvidutide is in the phase III PERFORMA study with a potential 52-week readout not expected until 2029. Year to date, Novo shares have lost 26.2% against the industry's 8.9% growth, and the stock trades at 10.92 forward earnings versus 17.49 for the industry, while 2026 earnings estimates have risen from $3.40 to $3.53 per share over the past 60 days.

Johnson & Johnson is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.90 per share and revenues of $25.37 billion when it releases results for the quarter ended September 2026 on October 13, according to the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The EPS figure represents a year-over-year increase of 3.6%, while revenue is expected to rise 5.8% from the year-ago quarter. The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.21% lower over the last 30 days, and the Most Accurate Estimate sits below the Zacks Consensus Estimate, producing an Earnings ESP of -0.01%. The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3, a combination that makes it difficult to conclusively predict an earnings beat. In the last reported quarter, Johnson & Johnson posted earnings of $2.90 per share against an expectation of $2.84, a surprise of +2.11%, and the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters.

The Trump administration has selected 10 companies, including AbbVie, Amgen, Pfizer, and GSK, for a new pilot program that tests a rebate model for drugs purchased under a federal program benefiting uninsured and low-income patients. The 340B Rebate Model Pilot takes effect on January 1 and allows the selected manufacturers to verify and pay rebates for 21 discounted drugs purchased under the government's 340B drug pricing program, rather than offering savings upfront as under the current discount model. The participating drugmakers are AbbVie, Amgen, Astellas, AstraZeneca, Bristol Myers, GSK, Merck, Pfizer, and Teva. The Health Resources and Services Administration, the HHS unit overseeing the program, said the approach helps address compliance concerns proactively rather than relying primarily on retrospective reviews, audits, and dispute resolution processes. The pilot marks the Trump administration's second attempt to overhaul the decades-old drug discount program, after a federal judge blocked HRSA's first 340B rebate pilot following a case brought by hospital groups last year.